Preview: US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

A refreshed Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula on Thursday in a rematch of the 2024 US Open final in this year’s first women’s semi-final.

The Belarusian benefitted from Marketa Vondrousova’s unfortunate withdrawal and is the favourite to progress to another final against the woman she defeated 12 months ago to claim her first crown in New York.

Match preview

While Sabalenka was expected to advance to the semi-final at Vondrousova’s expense, few would have predicted the Czech player’s withdrawal hours before facing the world No. 1 on Wednesday.

Fans might have missed out on a potentially thrilling contest between Grand Slam champions, but an extra day of rest likely benefits the top seed.

The 20-time WTA champion’s consistency has seen her reach the semi-final or final of 11 of the last 12 Grand Slams in which she has competed, with the only exception being her quarter-final exit at the 2024 French Open, highlighting the Belarusian star’s steady performances.

Nonetheless, Sabalenka may feel she should have won more Slams during that period, yet there is a sense that the 27-year-old sometimes feels overwhelmed by the occasion, as shown by her loss in the 2023 US Open final to Coco Gauff and this year’s French Open defeat to the same player.

Although the top seed is not yet assured a place in the final, she enters the match as the fresher player ahead of her 10th encounter with Pegula, having previously dominated the American in their matches.

Considering that the world No. 1 has yet to drop a set in New York, Pegula must play top-tier tennis to outsmart one of the pre-tournament favourites at Flushing Meadows.

Curiously, Sabalenka will be the American No. 2 player’s first seeded opponent since the opening round, although the 31-year-old has defeated former Slam champions Victoria Azarenka and Barbora Krejcikova.

By beating Krejcikova in two sets as predicted, Pegula has now progressed to consecutive semi-finals in her home major, which also marks the American’s total last-four appearances, having previously exited in six straight quarter-finals before beating Iga Swiatek 12 months ago.

Having broken new ground in 2024 in New York, Pegula took another step forward by securing a semi-final victory over Karolina Muchova to reach her first Grand Slam final.

Now, the world No. 4 must defeat the most consistent hard-court player on the women's tour to reach another Slam final and right the perceived wrongs of the previous year's defeat in the title match.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1

Second round: vs. Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2)

Fourth round: vs. Cristina Bucsa 6-1 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Marketa Vondrousova walkover

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Mayar Sherif 6-0 6-4

Second round: vs. Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-3

Third round: vs. Victoria Azarenka 6-1 7-5

Fourth round: vs. Ann Li 6-1 6-2

Quarter-final: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3

Head To Head

Miami Open (2025) - Final: Sabalenka 7-5 6-2

US Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 7-5 7-5

Cincinnati (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Pegula 6-4 6-3

WTA Finals (2022) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Rome (2022) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4

Madrid (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-2

French Open (2020) - First round: Sabalenka 6-3 6-1

Cincinnati (2020) - Round of 16: Pegula 6-2 2-6 6-3

Although Pegula claimed victory in their first encounter on the women’s tour, Sabalenka has since dominated this rivalry, winning seven of the following eight matches to lead 7-2.

The American last defeated the top seed two years ago at the WTA Finals round-robin, three years after her first, but she has since lost three consecutive matches.

These three losses occurred in title matches at Cincinnati, the US Open and recently in Miami, further highlighting Sabalenka’s dominance despite her occasional struggles in finals.

Importantly, all but one of their matchups have concluded in two sets, with the only encounter going to three sets being their very first meeting five years ago.