Preview:US Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

The US Open title is on the line in Sunday’s final, as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz compete for the last Grand Slam of the year, with the winner guaranteed to enter next week as world No. 1.

No men’s singles player has successfully defended the title at Flushing since Roger Federer won five consecutive crowns from 2004 to 2008, and that is the challenge that the top seed must face against his in-form friendly rival from Murcia, who has not dropped a set all tournament in New York.

Match preview

Sinner and Alcaraz will make more tennis history on Sunday when they face off for the 15th time on the ATP Tour in the US Open final.

The defending champion and top seed is the leading hard-court player on the men’s tour, having won 71 of his 75 matches on this surface since last year; however, three of his four losses have been against Sunday's opponent.

Despite missing three months earlier this season due to a doping suspension, the world No. 1 has shown remarkable consistency, reaching three Grand Slam finals since returning to competitive action in Rome before the French Open.

Before the ban, he made back-to-back Slam finals in Australia this year and in the United States last year, meaning the 24-year-old has competed in five consecutive major finals, highlighting his high performance levels.

By reaching the final on Sunday, Sinner joined Rod Laver, Federer and Novak Djokovic in achieving all four Slam finals in a single season; notably, he reached this milestone at the youngest age among all four.

The Italian superstar’s path to this final has been challenging, with Denis Shapovalov pushing him in the third round and Felix Auger-Aliassime posing an even greater threat in Friday’s semi-final, which lasted three hours and 21 minutes.

Sinner had to fight hard in both matches, however, and glass-half-empty fans might point to his injury scare against Auger-Aliassime, his shorter recovery after Friday’s semi and occasional lapses as signs of potential loss to his friendly rival.

Alcaraz, for his part, has been on fire in New York this year as he bids for his sixth Grand Slam title at the venue where he claimed his first three years ago.

The second seed has played precise, efficient and entertaining tennis on his way to a second final in New York and a third consecutive appearance this year after the French Open and Wimbledon.

The fact that Friday's two-hour, 23-minute victory over Djokovic is the longest match of the tournament is a credit to the 22-year-old.

When he briefly faltered early in the second set against Djokovic, some might have started recalling events Down Under when the Serbian recovered from a deficit to beat Alcaraz in four sets in Melbourne.

That Australian Open defeat was the Spaniard's third on a hard court against the 24-time Slam champion, and the Spanish sensation entered Friday's semis with a 0-3 record against the 38-year-old on the surface.

However, this version of Alcaraz is different gravy; he recovered from that early second-set dip to win the tie-break and take the first two sets, effectively deflating the Serbian star.

The Murcia-born star has yet to drop a set, and winning in a similar manner against Sinner would see the exceptionally talented five-time Slam champion make Open Era history by becoming the first to do so.

Yet, facing the man who ended his Wimbledon dominance and his winning streak in major finals is a tough challenge, but one he is confident he can overcome.

Alcaraz entered the final Grand Slam of 2025 having reached seven consecutive finals on the men's tour, which has now extended to eight, and he aims to secure his sixth title of the season by ending Sinner's 27-match winning streak in hard-court Slams.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2

Second round: vs. Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2

Third round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-1 6-1 6-1

Quarter-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-1 6-4 6-2

Semi-final: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Reilly Opelka 6-4 7-5 6-4

Second round: vs. Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-0 6-3

Third round: vs. Luciano Darderi 6-2 6-4 6-0

Fourth round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 6-4

Semi-final: vs Novak Djokovic 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2

Head To Head

Cincinnati Masters (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 5-0 ret

Wimbledon (2025) – Final: Sinner 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4

French Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 4–6 6–7(4) 6–4 7–6(3) 7–6 (10–2)

Italian Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 7-6(5) 6-1

China Open (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)

French Open (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 1-6 6-3 6-2

China Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-1

Miami Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-7(4)6-4 6-2

Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 7-6(4) 6-3

US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3

Croatia Open (2022) - Final: Sinner 6-7(5) 6-1 6-1

Wimbledon (2022) – Fourth round: Sinner 6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3

Paris Masters (2021) - Second round: Alcaraz 7-6(1) 7-5

Having initially led 4-3 in their rivalry, Sinner has since lost six of his last seven matches against Alcaraz, who now leads 9-5 over the Italian.

The two players face each other for the fifth time in 2025, with the world No. 2 winning three times, including a five-hour, 29-minute marathon at the French Open, where Alcaraz saved three match points in the fourth set before securing the victory.

Although Sinner defeated the Spaniard in the Wimbledon final the next month, Alcaraz beat the ailing Italian in their recent match in Cincinnati before the US Open.

Notably, the 2022 US Open champion has won all five-set matches in this rivalry — at the 2022 US Open, the 2024 French Open semi-final and the 2025 French Open final — suggesting that the world No. 1 needs to win in four sets to beat the two-time Wimbledon champion, who has won 11 straight five-set matches (14-1 overall) since losing to Matteo Berrettini at the 2022 Australian Open.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Matches between Sinner and Alcaraz are extremely hard to predict; you could support either player for victory, and you would be justified.

However, Alcaraz has played exceptionally high-quality tennis throughout the entire fortnight and has not dropped a set on his way to a second final at Flushing, while Sinner has looked uncertain in two rounds against Shapovalov and Auger-Aliassime.

As a result, the Spanish sensation is favoured to secure his 10th win against the top seed, thereby notching his sixth Grand Slam title and reclaiming the No. 1 ranking.