Preview: US Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aiming to make the most of avoiding another last-four clash against Jannik Sinner, 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic takes on Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s US Open semi-final for a place in Sunday’s final.

The 38-year-old Serbian, 16 years older than Alcaraz, has a winning record against the Spanish sensation on hard courts, including a victory in Australia this year, which further underlines the veteran’s skill and resilience.

Match preview

Djokovic has already shown this year that he retains the ability to make deep runs at the majors, having reached the semi-finals at all four leading tournaments, thus becoming the oldest men’s player to achieve this feat in the Open Era.

Despite having to contend with an unruly crowd, the three-time US Open champion secured an impressive victory over world No. 4 Taylor Fritz in three hours and 24 minutes, marking his ninth top-five career win at the US Open, emulating Ivan Lendl and Roger Federer.

The reward for a hard-fought four-set victory is another chance at reaching a first Grand Slam final since 2024's Wimbledon, where Friday's opponent crushed him.

While that disappointment was soon followed by beating Alcaraz at the Paris Olympics, Djokovic, who last won the title in New York two years ago, is aiming to reach the final of a major after more than a year.

Not facing Sinner could boost the Serbian star’s confidence, considering his five-match losing streak against the Italian; facing Alcaraz is a much better match-up for the 38-year-old, who aims to record a third consecutive victory over the Spaniard.

Nonetheless, the in-form Spaniard is probably in the best shape of his early career, highlighted by reaching seven consecutive finals since losing to David Goffin in the second round in Miami.

Alcaraz's only defeats since that March setback in Florida were against Holger Rune in Barcelona and Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon.

Five titles have been won in that period, an outstanding achievement for the 22-year-old, whose progress in New York has been marked by the absence of a dropped set.

Another high-level performance against Jiri Lehecka in the quarter-final on Tuesday was the world No. 2's 59th win in 2025, a staggering number for the five-time Grand Slam champion, who could reclaim the No. 1 ranking by surpassing Sinner's performance at Flushing Meadows.

Fresh off becoming the youngest player to reach the semi-finals on all three surfaces in multiple seasons (2023 and 2025), Alcaraz now aims to advance to his third consecutive Slam final and sixth overall.

Victory would see the talented prodigy end a losing streak against the seasoned veteran, but it would also bring the Spanish star back to centre stage at Arthur Ashe, where he claimed his maiden Grand Slam in 2022.

Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Learner Tien 6-1 7-6(3) 6-2

Second round: vs. Zachary Svajda 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 6-3 6-2

Quarter-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Reilly Opelka 6-4 7-5 6-4

Second round: vs. Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-2 (ret)

Third round: vs. Luciano Darderi 6-2 6-4 6-2

Fourth round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 6-4

Head To Head

Australian Open (2025) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4

Paris Olympics (2024) - Final: Djokovic 7-6(3) 7-6(2)

Wimbledon (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-2 6-2 7-6(4)

ATP Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 6-2

Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Final: Djokovic 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)

Wimbledon (2023) - Final: Alcaraz 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4

French Open (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1

Madrid Masters (2022) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)

Djokovic leads Alcaraz 5-3 on the ATP Tour, and the Serbian aims to secure a sixth victory over the young player to extend his lead in their head-to-head.

While the Spaniard secured two wins in their first three encounters, the 24-time Slam champion has since won four of the last five matches.

Two of those wins include last year’s gold medal match at the Paris Olympics and earlier this year in Australia, the latter being Djokovic’s third victory over Alcaraz on a hard court.

With the Spanish sensation’s wins coming on clay and grass, it will be interesting to see whether the 22-year-old ends his 0-3 hard-court record against the seasoned 100-time titlist.

Both men enter Friday’s semi-final tied at 2-2 in Grand Slam matches, and the victor in New York will take a 3-2 lead.

We say: Alcaraz to win in five sets

The longer Friday’s match lasts, the more it benefits Alcaraz, who is not only fresher and younger but also boasts a 14-1 record in five-set matches, winning 11 in a row.

Djokovic prefers facing the world No. 2 over Sinner, as reflected in the Serbian star winning four of their recent five encounters.

However, this version of Alcaraz is different gravy, and the 22-year-old is favoured to outlast the three-time US Open champion and reach Sunday’s final, prolonging the Serbian’s quest for a 25th major title.