Preview: US Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Six years after a tearful Coco Gauff was comforted by Naomi Osaka in New York, both players will face each other in the fourth round of the US Open on Monday.

In this clash of former champions in New York, Osaka is competing in the third round for the first time since winning the title in 2020, while the American player aims to avoid another last-16 exit after being eliminated at this stage 12 months ago.

Match preview

Osaka had a commendable run in the hard-court tournaments leading up to the final Grand Slam of the year, making her progression to the last 16 in New York unsurprising.

Emma Raducanu may have defeated the Japanese player in Washington, but the four-time Grand Slam champion has gone on a tear since then, reaching the WTA 1000 title match in Montreal, where she lost to Canadian teenager Victoria Mboko.

While Osaka’s mentality in coping with adversity still remains questionable, the two-time US Open champion’s hard-court prowess is undeniable.

Having mentally collapsed in Canada during her defeat by Mboko, the 27-year-old should be prepared for a vociferous home crowd, even if her previous success in these parts suggests that the partisan support may not reach the same intense heights as in Montreal.

Considering her 30-12 record in 2025, with nine wins in the last 10, the former world No. 1 seeks a 10th win on the surface since the end of July to continue her impressive North American swing.

On the opposite side of the net is Gauff, whose match durations have steadily shortened since a tournament-opening win over Ajla Tomljanovic.

Since that two-hour 57-minute victory, the third seed has defeated Donna Vekic in one hour and 39 minutes and followed that with a one-hour 13-minute triumph over Magdalena Frech, against whom she dropped four games in her 6-3, 6-1 victory.

Having hit 10 double-faults in her opening success and eight against Vekic, Gauff's double-fault count was four in the third round, standing her in good stead ahead of a thrilling contest with the two-time US Open champion.

By defeating Frech, the 2023 champion became the youngest (21 years, 164 days) since Caroline Wozniacki (21 years, 49 days) in 2011 to claim 20 wins in Flushing Meadows, and the two-time Grand Slam champion seeks a 21st at Osaka's expense.

After a shock first-round elimination at Wimbledon, Gauff, whose previous Slams in 2025 were the last eight in Australia in January and a French Open title run, aims to progress to another quarter-final of a Major against the two-time champion in New York.

Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Greet Minnen 6-3 6-4

Second round: vs. Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-0 4-6 6-3

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 6-7(2) 7-5

Second round: vs. Donna Vekic 7-6(5) 6-2

Third round: vs. Magdalena Frech 6-3 6-1

Head To Head

Beijing (2024) - Round of 16: Gauff 3-6 6-4 ret.

San Jose (2022) - Round of 16: Gauff 6-4 6-4

Cincinnati (2021) - Round of 32: Osaka 4-6 6-3 6-4

Australian Open (2020) – Third round: Gauff 6-3 6-4

US Open (2019) - Round of 32: Osaka 6-3 6-0

Since a tearful Gauff lost to Osaka in 2019, the young American has won four of the subsequent five encounters, including the last two, to lead their head-to-head 3-2.

Gauff and the Japanese star are tied at 1-1 in Grand Slam meetings, with the third seed having previously beaten the four-time Grand Slam champion five years ago in Australia.

Interestingly, all matches have been on hard courts, and Monday will be no different, marking their sixth encounter on the surface.

We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Although Osaka admittedly enters Monday’s match in better form, the Japanese star’s mental vulnerability and Gauff’s skill at winning ugly, combined with the home support, could give her the advantage over the two-time US Open champion.