Preview: US Open: Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

For the third consecutive hard-court Grand Slam, Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka are set to face off on Wednesday for a place in the US Open semi-final.

Battle-hardened Muchova has required a decider in every round, and it remains to be seen whether her body can withstand the challenge against the Japanese superstar, whose eyes must be lighting up at the prospect of a fifth major.

Match preview

Muchova entered this year's US Open having exited early at the previous Slams in 2025, losing in the second round in Australia and in her tournament-opening matches at the French Open and Wimbledon.

The 29-year-old has had to battle hard to reach a third consecutive quarter-final in New York, with every match in this year's tournament requiring a deciding third set, with her two-hour tussle with veteran Venus Williams so far being the shortest.

With the two-time US Open semi-finalist also requiring medical timeouts in her latest victory over Marta Kostyuk, the injury-prone Czech star's body breaking down remains a concerning outcome.

Muchova's previous two quarter-finals against Sorana Cirstea and Beatriz Haddad Maia ended in straight sets; the world No. 13 will welcome a two-set victory after this year's prolonged matches.

That result would be the 11th seed’s 22nd career victory at the tournament, potentially setting up an exciting last-four clash against Amanda Anisimova or Iga Swiatek.

Osaka might have a point to make about that, given the positive signs for the Japanese four-time Grand Slam champion.

No sooner had the two-time US Open champion outplayed an error-prone Coco Gauff on Monday than news spread about the 27-year-old's Slam success whenever she advances this far.

On four occasions, Osaka has reached the quarter-finals at Grand Slams, and she has gone on to win major titles in all four years, taking the US Open in 2018 and 2020, as well as the Australian Open in 2019 and 2021.

By defeating Gauff on Monday, Osaka improved her record to 27-6 in New York, surpassing her 26-7 tally in Australia.

The world No. 23 had entered this year's tournament after a disappointing loss to Victoria Mboko in Montreal, but the 27-year-old has refocused and channelled that setback into her best run at Flushing Meadows in five years.

Now she aims to secure one more victory to reach the last four in New York, just two matches away from a third Slam in the United States.

Tournament so far

Karolina Muchova:

First round: vs. Venus Williams 6-3 2-6 6-1

Second round: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-7(7) 7-6(3) 6-4

Third round: vs. Linda Noskova 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2

Fourth round: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-7(0) 6-3

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Greet Minnen 6-3 6-4

Second round: vs. Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-0 4-6 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 6-2

Head To Head

Australian Open (2025) - Second round: Osaka 6-1 1-6 6-3

US Open (2024) - Second round: Muchova 6-3 7-6(5)

Madrid (2021) – Round of 32: Muchova 6-4 3-6 6-1

Cincinnati (2020) - Round of 32: Osaka 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2

Osaka and Muchova are tied at 2-2 in their head-to-head record, with the winner set to take a 3-2 lead after Wednesday’s quarter-final.

Their upcoming clash will be their third at a Grand Slam, with Osaka having secured the recent win Down Under earlier this year, and the Czech player having won their US Open encounter 12 months ago.

Notably, however, the Japanese star leads their hard-court rivalry 2-1, and the four-time Grand Slam champion will look to secure a third victory and advance to the semi-finals.

We say: Osaka to win in two sets

It is hard to predict how much Muchova has in the tank after reaching a decider in all four rounds, while in-form Osaka has been steadily improving on her way to Wednesday’s match.

Therefore, we back the two-time champion in the United States to overcome the Czech star’s variety and advance to the semi-finals in New York.