Preview: US Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti will face each other in Wednesday's all-Italian quarter-final at the US Open for a spot in the last four in New York.

The defending champion delivered an outstanding performance to demolish Alexander Bublik on Monday night, thereby setting up a third encounter on the ATP Tour with his compatriot, who has regained form in the United States after post-French Open difficulties.

Match preview

If Sinner’s performance in the third-round win over Denis Shapovalov highlighted uncertainty, the Italian star’s dismantling of Bublik on Monday was the complete opposite.

Under the lights inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, the world No. 1 dropped only three games to outplay a shell-shocked opponent, who had not dropped serve all tournament.

By securing that victory, Sinner has entered the last eight of the US Open for consecutive years and in three of the past four tournaments in New York.

Furthermore, the defending champion has extended his streak of wins in the hard court Grand Slams to 25, continuing his bid to claim all four majors on the surface in consecutive years.

Now, the four-time Slam champion, who has also improved to 21-5 in New York, seeks a 22nd triumph to set up a semi-final encounter against Felix Auger-Aliassime or Alex de Minaur.

On the other side of the net is Musetti, whose resurgence in the final Slam of the year was unexpected after June's events in Paris.

The two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist was forced to retire injured against Carlos Alcaraz in the second major of 2025, a setback that subsequently led to a break and a decline in results before the US Open.

Musetti's sole victory entering the final Slam of the year came against James Duckworth in Canada, but that win was flanked by two losses to Nikoloz Basilashvili and Cameron Norrie — Wimbledon and Washington, respectively — and Alex Michelsen and Benjamin Bonzi — Canada and Cincinnati, respectively.

However, the world No. 10 has apparently returned to something close to his top form, defeating serve-bot Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in four sets, David Goffin in three, compatriot Flavio Cobolli and Jaume Munar in three.

The longest time spent on court by the Italian No. 2 was two hours and 32 minutes against the big-serving Frenchman, highlighting the former world No. 6's freshness before Wednesday's match.

Having progressed smoothly through the draw this year, Musetti now aims to beat the best player on hard courts to reach his first semi-final in New York and third overall after Wimbledon (2024) and Roland Garros (2025).

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2

Second round: vs. Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2

Third round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-1 6-1 6-1

Lorenzo Musetti:

First round: vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4 6-4

Second round: vs. David Goffin 6-4 6-0 6-2

Third round: vs. Flavio Cobolli 6-3 6-2 2-0 ret.

Fourth round: vs. Jaume Munar 6-3 6-0 6-1

Head To Head

Barcelona (2023) - Quarter-final: Musetti (walkover)

Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-2 6-2

Antwerp (2021) - Round of 16: Sinner 7-5 6-2

Sinner leads Musetti 2-0 in their head-to-head encounters, having not dropped a set in both matches in Antwerp and Monte-Carlo.

The Italian No. 1 also boasts a 15-0 record against fellow Italians on the men's tour, already indicating potential concerns for the world No. 10, whose 5-22 career record against top-five opponents underlines his struggles against the sport's elite.

We say: Sinner to win in three sets

When doubt may have entered his fans’ minds, Sinner’s stunning performance to dismantle Bublik has restored confidence.

As a result, the top seed is expected to secure victory against Musetti in straight sets and progress to another semi-final in a hard-court Grand Slam.