Preview: Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur- prediction, form, head-to-head

In one of the showcase matchups of the Australian Open quarter-finals on the men’s draw, Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur will both be seeking to make the semi-finals of this event for the first time.

To advance to this stage, the top-seeded Spaniard defeated Tommy Paul 7-6 (8-6) 6-4 7-5 while the sixth-ranked Australian took care of Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-1 6-1.

Match preview

No matter what is thrown at him, Alcaraz does not seem to flinch, and in his fourth-round affair he kept his composure despite a first-set delay due to a medical emergency in the crowd.

For the second time in his last three matches, the Spaniard had to go to a first-set tiebreak in the round of 16, but after prevailing, he went on to a comfortable victory.

He has not lost a single set at the tournament this year but has dropped six of his last eight quarter-final sets at the Aussie Open, losing in four sets to Novak Djokovic at this stage last year.

At the same time, he has advanced beyond his last three Grand Slam quarter-final matches without losing a set, winning his previous hard-court major tournament at the US Open last summer.

In his round of 16 encounter, he only hit two aces in the match but won 68% of his second serves to go along with 35 winners.

Alcaraz also won 70% of his first serves, without a single double fault in the nearly two-hour 45-minute affair, moving a step closer to claiming the final Grand Slam title remaining on his resume.

With the expectations of the home crowd and facing an undefeated player to that stage of 2026, Alex de Minaur never looked overwhelmed, handing Bublik his first loss of the year and winning comfortably in the end.

Throughout the match, de Minaur is the one who looked unbeatable, putting Bublik on the run in their baseline rallies while winning 46% of his receiving points.

de Minaur will make his second straight appearance in the last eight of this tournament and he is now just three wins away from becoming the first Australian male to win this event since Mark Edmondson in 1976.

A win for him in this match would make him the first Aussie to reach the semi-finals of this tournament since Lleyton Hewitt was the runner-up in 2005.

Against his Kazakhstani opponent, de Minaur was razor sharp on serve, winning 81% of his first serves and 72% in his second ones.

He only managed 19 winners but has rarely made a mistake to this stage of the Open, only committing 10 unforced errors in his last 16 outing.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Adam Walton 6-3 7-6 (7-2) 6-2

Second round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 7-6 (7-4) 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 6-1

Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6 (8-6) 6-4 7-5

Alex de Minaur:

First round: vs. Mackenzie McDonald 6-2 6-2 6-3

Second round: vs. Hamad Medjedovic 6-7 (5-7) 6-2 6-2 6-1

Third round: vs. Frances Tiafoe 6-3 6-4 7-5

Round of 16: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-1 6-1

Head To Head

Barcelona Open (2022) - Semi-Finals: Alcaraz wins 6-7 7-6 6-4

Queen's Club Championship (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-4

ABN AMRO Open (2025) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-4 3-6 6-2

Barcelona Open (2025) - Quarter-Finals: Alcaraz wins 7-5 6-3

Nitto ATP Finals (2025) - Round Robin: Alcaraz wins 7-6 6-2

These two have had some memorable showdowns through the years, the first one being in Barcelona back in 2022.

There was little to choose between them on that day, with two of the three sets going to a tiebreak, but serves may have been the difference, with Alcaraz winning 73% of his first serves and de Minaur at 62% on that front.

In England, the following year, Alcaraz had seven aces to de Minaur’s one, with the former converting his two break-point opportunities for the win.

The next time they faced off was in the final in Rotterdam last year, in a a match in which de Minaur registered four double faults, while Alcaraz won 64% of his second serves.

They met for a second time in Barcelona in 2025, and it was the Spaniard who won once again, hitting 16 winners while converting all eight of his net points.

At the Nitto Finals last year, these two were dead even in first serves won at 63% each, though Alcaraz won 58% of his second serve points and converted four of his break point opportunities to come out on top.

We say: Alcaraz to win in five sets

All tournament long, these two have played like champions, and neither have made a lot of mistakes to this stage.

This match could go either way, but we trust the Spaniard’s power and shot-making ability in the clutch just a little more in a match of this magnitude.