Preview: Australian Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz- prediction, form, head-to-head

Seeking to make the quarter-finals of the Australian Open for the first time, Lorenzo Musetti faces Taylor Fritz for the third time at a major championship.

On Friday, the fifth seed won a marathon five-set contest versus Tomas Machac 5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2, while Fritz got past Stan Wawrinka 7-6 (7-5) 2-6 6-4 6-4.

Match preview

The road to the last 16 has been filled with setbacks for Lorenzo Musetti, but, to his credit, he has persevered through some tough matches.

Although he needed well over four hours to dispose of his pesky Czech opponent in round three, in the end, he hit 10 aces to Machac’s three and went on to win.

This weekend will mark his third time in the fourth round of a Grand Slam event in his last four appearances, with the Italian making it beyond this phase in two of those previous three occasions.

His service game has played a big part in him getting this far, as he won 73% of his first serves in his previous match while conceding only three aces.

Only once in his career has he played a fourth-round Grand Slam singles contest on the hard court, beating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar in straight sets at the previous US Open.

Musetti’s serve on Friday reached up to 211 km per hour, though he made 53 unforced errors, which nearly cost him the match.

Against the experienced but sentimental favourite in Wawrinka, Fritz ultimately came through, advancing to his third successive Grand Slam fourth round affair.

A victory for him this weekend would equal his best-ever finish at the Australian Open when he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas to advance to the quarter-finals in 2024.

In the match with Wawrinka, his service game was on form, as he registered 30 aces throughout the contest and won 85% of his first serves.

The American has advanced beyond the round of 16 in seven of his last eight appearances at that stage of a Grand Slam singles event.

Unforced errors were nearly his downfall against his older Swiss opponent Thursday as he had 42 but only registered one double fault.

Fritz was strong in the net game on Friday, winning 13 of his 15 net-point opportunities, while he hit 59 winners during the match, which lasted just over 2 hours and 45 minutes.

Tournament so far

Lorenbzo Musetti:

First round: vs. Raphael Collignon 4-6 7-6 (7-3) 7-5 3-3 walkover

Second round: vs. Lorenzo Sonego 6-3 6-3 6-4

Third round: vs. Tomas Machac 5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2

Taylor Fritz:

First round: vs. Valentin Royer 7-6 (7-5) 5-7 6-1 6-3

Second round: vs. Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-4 7-6 (7-4)

Third round: vs. Stan Wawrinka 7-6 (7-5) 2-6 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

Wimbledon (2022) - First Round: Fritz wins 6-4 6-4 6-3

Davis Cup (2022) - Quarter-Finals: Fritz wins 7-6 6-3

ATP Masters Monte Carlo (2024) - Round of 64: Musetti wins 6-4 6-4

Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-Finals: Musetti wins 3-6 7-6 6-2 3-6 6-1

Olympics (2024) - Round of 16: Musetti wins 6-4 7-5

Nitto ATP Finals (2025) - Round Robin: Fritz wins 6-3 6-4

It feels like ages ago, but these two first met at the All England Club in 2022 in an opening-round affair that saw Fritz hit 16 aces while converting four break points for a straight-sets win.

The next time they squared off at the Davis Cup, Musetti won an opening set tiebreak and took control in the second set to take the match, helping Italy defeat the United States in the overall series 2-1.

In Monaco two years later, the Italian won four of his five break-point opportunities, which ultimately proved decisive as he went on to win again.

When they met for a second time at Wimbledon, Musetti had the edge in first serves, winning 76% of his with Fritz at 64%, and that ultimately gave him the edge he needed.

Their first meeting on clay came at the previous Summer Olympics in Paris, with the Italian’s groundstrokes and lateral movement winning the day.

Fritz evened the overall series between them at the Nitto ATP Finals last year, hitting 13 aces while his opponent committed five double faults, which was five more than the American.

We say: Fritz to win in five sets

This is a tough match to call, as both have been tested in this tournament and each possess the overall game to go all the way, but when Fritz’s serve is on point hardly anyone on the men’s draw can stop him, and that may be the difference in this one.