Preview: Australian Open: Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys - prediction, form, head-to-head

Longtime friends will become temporary foes at the Australian Open when Jessica Pegula faces Madison Keys in an all-American showdown in round four of the women’s draw.

In her third-round outing, Pegula got past Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 6-2, while her upcoming opponent was able to defeat Karolina Pliskova 6-3 6-3.

Match preview

For as much power as she might lack on her serve, Jessica Pegula more than makes up for it in her return game, and we saw more evidence of that in round three.

The 31-year-old did not register a single double fault against her Russian opponent in her last outing and won 48% of her receiving points.

This weekend, she can equal her best-ever finish at the Aussie Open when she made the quarter-finals in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

She has advanced beyond the round of 16 in two of her previous three Grand Slam singles appearances at this stage, defeating fellow American Ann Li in the fourth round of the US Open this past summer.

To get to this stage, she has played relatively mistake-free with only 12 unforced errors in her third-round affair while hitting 13 winners.

Pegula won 88% of her first serves the last time out and also boasted a solid 61% on her second serves to get past Selekhmeteva.

Once again, Madison Keys’ power was on full display at Rod Laver Arena on Friday, as the American overpowered her Czech opponent with 25 winners.

The defending champion is into round four of this tournament for a second successive campaign with a chance to make a Grand Slam singles quarter-final for the first time since the 2025 French Open.

In three of her previous four appearances in the round of 16 of this event, Keys has advanced, defeating Elena Rybakina in three sets at this stage last year.

While she won 76% of her first serves in her third-round encounter, the Orlando native also made 24 unforced errors throughout the match.

On the day, though, she was particularly sharp at the net, winning four of her five net point opportunities, while hitting two return winners.

Her serve reached a speed of 194 km per hour the last time out, and Keys was able to convert four of her break point opportunities.

Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Anastasia Zakharova 6-2 6-1

Second round: vs. McCartney Kessler 6-0 6-2

Third round: vs. Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 6-3

Madison Keys: 

First round: vs. Oleksandra Oliynykova 7-6 (8-6) 6-1

Second round: vs. Ashlyn Kruger 6-1 7-5

Third round: vs. Karolina Pliskova 6-3 6-3

Head To Head

San Diego Open (2022) - Quarter-Finals: Pegula wins 6-4 7-5

US Open (2023) - Fourth Round: Keys wins 6-1 6-3

Adelaide International (2025) - Final: Keys win 6-3 4-6 6-1

The first time these two met up in San Diego, Pegula won 77% of her first serves, while converting three break-point opportunities and conceding only one en route to winning.

At Flushing Meadows the next year, Keys had a decisive edge in first serves, winning 77% of hers while collecting five break points and giving up just one.

Their most competitive match came in Australia early in 2025, when Keys had 10 aces and won 54% of her second serves, while Pegula won only 38% on that front.

We say: Keys to win in three sets

These women have two contrasting styles which will be fascinating to watch, but ultimately, we believe Keys’ big-game experience at this event and power will prevail.