Preview: US Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Seeking his first-ever semi-final appearance at a Grand Slam, Alex de Minaur faces 2021 US Open semi-finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime in Wednesday's quarter-final.

The Australian No. 1 aims to break new ground after suffering five quarter-final losses at the majors, including two defeats in New York.

Match preview

Auger-Aliassime probably never expected to reach this stage in the final Grand Slam of the year, despite previously making it to the semi-finals in the United States.

The Canadian’s 2021 run in New York has since been seen as an anomaly amid several early setbacks at Flushing Meadows, including four first-round exits, one second-round loss and one fourth-round defeat.

Although he reached the quarter-finals in Cincinnati, where he was convincingly beaten by Jannik Sinner, the world No. 27 has recovered by reaching the last eight in New York, defeating a top-10 opponent and a top-15 player.

Even though the 25-year-old Canadian was not favoured to beat Alexander Zverev, against whom he trailed 2-6 in their head-to-head, in the third round, Auger-Aliassime notched his third win over the German star to advance to Monday's last 16 before beating Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

Only Zverev has taken a set off the former world No. 6 before Wednesday's quarter-final, and the Canadian, who has won all four tiebreaks en route to a second last-eight appearance in New York, now aims to emulate his 2021 run by outlasting De Minaur.

The Demon will aim to avoid shootouts, given Auger-Aliassime’s spotless tie-break record and his success in converting break points so far.

The world No. 8 has secured 21 break points across four matches, ranking just behind Sinner (26), Novak Djokovic (23), Lorenzo Musetti (23), and Jiri Lehecka (22) among the quarter-finalists.

However, De Minaur's journey to the last eight in New York appears quite fortunate, considering the highest-ranked opponent he has faced is world No. 56 Daniel Altmaier, who retired injured while trailing in their third-round match.

Having had a relatively easy path to the quarter-finals, the former world No. 6 must defeat his Canadian competitor to make new inroads at the majors.

De Minaur's previous quarter-final runs at majors have ended in disappointment against Dominic Thiem, Zverev, Djokovic (due to a walkover), Jack Draper and Sinner, with defeats to Thiem and Draper coming in the United States.

Notably, Auger-Aliassime represents the lowest-ranked quarter-final opponent the Australian star has faced, and it will be interesting to see if this minor detail influences the outcome for the world No. 8 on Wednesday.

Tournament so far

Felix Auger-Aliassime:

First round: vs. Billy Harris 6-4 7-6(8) 6-4

Second round: vs. Roman Safiullin 6-1 7-6(4) 7-6(5)

Third round: vs. Alexander Zverev 4-6 7-6 (9-7) 6-4 6-4

Fourth round: vs. Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-3 6-4

Alex de Minaur:

First round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-3 6-4 6-4

Second round: vs. Shintaro Mochizuki 6-2 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Daniel Altmaier 6-7 (7) 6-3 6-4 2-0 ret.

Fourth round: vs. Leandro Riedi 6-3 6-2 6-1

Head To Head

Rome Masters (2024) - Third round: De Minaur 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4

Davis Cup (2022) - Final: Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-4

Cincinnati Masters (2022) - Second round: Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-2

Auger-Aliassime leads his head-to-head with De Minaur 2-1 ahead of their fourth encounter on the ATP Tour.

The Canadian's wins, though in 2022, came on hard courts, while the Demon's only success was on clay in Rome last year.

Both players have not faced off on a hard court in three years or competed at a Grand Slam, suggesting that their upcoming match in New York could go either way.

We say: Auger-Aliassime to win in four sets

While De Minaur is higher ranked and fresher, given his smoother progression, Auger-Aliassime is battle-hardened and has defeated two top-20 opponents.

The Canadian scoring easy points on serve with aces or unreturnable deliveries, along with clutch play on the big points, should benefit him against the Demon.