Preview: US Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Next in line to challenge Jannik Sinner on a hard court in a Grand Slam is Alexei Popyrin, who aims to end the Italian player’s 22-match winning streak in Thursday’s second-round contest at the US Open.

Both players secured wins in straight sets to set up their second ATP Tour encounter and the first in four years, although Sinner dropped only four games, whereas the Australian lost 14.

Match preview

There were worrying signs for Sinner after retiring in the opening set of his Cincinnati Masters title defence against Carlos Alcaraz, but the Italian was in fine fettle against Vit Kopriva on Tuesday.

The world No. 1 gave little away on serve and broke his Czech opponent seven times en route to a 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 victory in under two hours inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, thereby securing his 18th US Open victory.

That success puts the 24-year-old one more triumph away from surpassing countryman Matteo Berrettini for wins in New York among Italian players, a statistic the defending champion is favoured to achieve against Popyrin to continue his dominance of the hard-court Slams.

Sinner, who lost only three matches on the surface in 2024 (55-3), is on a 22-match winning streak after winning in Australia last year and successfully defending Down Under in January, sandwiched between securing the US Open crown 12 months ago, further stressing his dominance.

By avoiding an early exit against Kopriva, the top seed has improved to 18-5 in New York, and he aims for a 19th crown by avoiding his earliest exit at a major since the 2023 French Open, when Daniel Altmaier eliminated him in the second round.

On the other side of the net, Popyrin, fresh off firing 19 aces in the opening round, chases another huge upset in New York.

The Australian player stunned the Arthur Ashe crowd 12 months ago with his four-set triumph over Novak Djokovic, but a higher level of performance will be required to end Sinner's title defence.

A 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3) triumph over Emil Ruusuvuori in the opening round was the 26-year-old's ninth career win at Flushing Meadows, where he held a 62% win rate before Tuesday.

The Aussie player's latest triumph now sees his success rate rise to 64% in the United States, surpassing his results in his home Slam (50%), the French Open (36%), and Wimbledon (33%), demonstrating that Sinner cannot underestimate the three-time ATP champion.

Securing his 10th career win at the US Open will be a tough challenge, but Popyrin’s aggressive style — evidenced by hitting 44 winners against Ruusuvuori — will be crucial if he hopes to upset the world No. 1.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2

Alexei Popyrin:

First round: vs. Emil Ruusuvuori 6-3 6-4 7-6[3]

Head To Head

Madrid Masters (2021) - Round of 32: Popyrin 7-6(5) 6-2

Although it was four years ago, Popyrin won his only match against Sinner on the clay courts in Madrid in 2021.

Much has changed for the Italian since that straight-sets defeat, and he goes into Thursday’s match having not lost in a hard-court major since a five-set defeat to Alexander Zverev in the last 16 of the 2023 US Open.

The challenge appears more daunting for Popyrin, given his 3-12 record against top-five players; however, two of his victories have come in the past 52 weeks — against Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev at the US Open and Paris Masters, respectively.

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

While Popyrin’s ball-striking might see him nick one set against Sinner, the Australian must play high-level tennis for a sustained period to have any chance of causing an upset.

With the likelihood of that happening being very slim, the top seed, who dropped just two sets on his way to last year’s title, is expected to defeat Popyrin in four sets and advance to the third round.