Preview: US Open: Donna Vekic vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Former US Open quarter-finalist Donna Vekic and 2023 champion Coco Gauff will compete on Thursday for a place in the third round.

Both women needed to win ugly in their tournament openers, with Vekic overturning a disadvantage to advance, while the two-time Slam champion overcame an error-strewn showing to beat Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 6-7(2) 7-5.

Match preview

There were 13 service breaks in Vekic's first-round win over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, with the Croatian coming back from a set down to secure a 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 victory in two hours and six minutes.

After losing in the first round for three consecutive years before ending that unwanted streak by reaching the last 16 a year ago, the unseeded 29-year-old might have feared another setback was imminent after dropping the first set.

While Vekic and Bouzas Maneiro were tied for winners — 24 each — the former No. 17-ranked player played and made four fewer unforced errors — 37-41 — in a match that could have gone either way, considering the slim margins.

By securing Tuesday's victory, the world No. 49 has continued her run of avoiding a first-round exit in seven consecutive Slams since an early exit at last year's Australian Open.

Having not made significant progress in New York since reaching the quarter-finals in 2019, Vekic, who advanced to the last 16 in 2024, seeks a top-10 win to continue building momentum in the first week of the final Major of 2025.

Facing Gauff will be an unmistakable challenge, given the home support she enjoys in New York and her status as a former champion.

After making changes to her team by adding Gavin MacMillan to rebuild her serve, eyes were on the two-time Grand Slam champion, whose inordinate number of double-faults in previous tournaments was concerning.

On the one hand, committing 10 double-faults in three hours of tennis against Ajla Tomljanovic was a positive for a player who hit 42 in Rome, 38 in Indian Wells and 33 in Montreal.

However, the 21-year-old committed 59 unforced errors to her opponent's 56, while outperforming the Australian in winners — 29-12 — but she must substantially reduce the errors before it proves costly.

While ending the tournament as world No. 1 is possible if Aryna Sabalenka loses before the quarter-finals and Gauff wins the US Open, that ambition remains distant for the home hopeful, who cannot always rely on winning ugly to beat opponents.

Tuesday’s win was Gauff's 18th in New York, and the 21-year-old, who has not exited before the second round since 2021, aims to extend that run by outlasting her Croatian opponent.

Tournament so far

Donna Vekic:

First round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 3-6 7-5 6-3

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 6-7[2] 7-5

Head To Head

United Cup (2024) - Round Robin: Gauff 6-4 6-2

Paris Olympics (2024) - Round of 16: Vekic 7-6(7) 6-2

Vekic and Gauff are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head, and the winner on Thursday will take a 2-1 lead.

The Croatian player claimed their first meeting at last year’s Olympic Games, but the two-time Grand Slam champion won their clash at the start of the season in the United Cup.

Given that Gauff’s victory was on a hard court, the American player perhaps has the advantage heading into their third meeting on the women’s tour.

Further supporting that sentiment is Vekic’s 3-9 record against top-10 players since April last year (17-41 overall), although one of the Croat’s three victories was against Gauff on the Paris clay.

We say: Gauff to win in two sets

Thursday’s outcome depends on which version of Gauff surfaces: Good Coco or Bad Coco.

While the issues with the 2023 champion’s serve are unlikely to disappear overnight, the 21-year-old still can win in challenging circumstances if needed.

Therefore, we expect Gauff to take down Vekic and move on to the third round, where Magdalena Frech or Peyton Stearns possibly await.