Preview:US Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs. Iga Swiatek - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

In a rematch of their quarter-final match in Cincinnati, Iga Swiatek and Anna Kalinskaya face off in the third round of the US Open on Saturday, with the victor guaranteed a last-16 place.

Both players have had similar runs in the United States ahead of their third meeting on the WTA Tour, highlighted by one straightforward match and a hard-fought victory.

Match preview

After hardly breaking a sweat in her tournament-opening victory over Emiliana Arango, Swiatek was pushed in Thursday’s success over world No. 66 Suzan Lamens.

Having dropped just three games en route to a 6-1, 6-2 first-round win, the second seed lost the second set against the Dutchwoman, before recovering to seal a 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 victory.

By defeating Lamens, the second seed has become the fourth player to reach 23 third-round matches or more at majors in the Open Era, trailing Martina Navratilova (35), Conchita Martinez (30) and Arantxa Sanchez (25).

Among current players on the tour, only Jessica Pegula (81 wins) has outdone Swiatek's 74 triumphs on American soil in the 2020s, further demonstrating the Polish superstar's remarkable consistency.

The No. 2 player in the world is arguably the in-form player on the women's tour at present, having won her first Wimbledon title and recently claimed victory in Cincinnati, meaning she enters Saturday's match against Kalinskaya with a 16-1 record since losing the Bad Homburg final to Pegula.

Swiatek's form emphasises the uphill challenge facing Kalinskaya before Saturday, with the Russian player aiming to reach the second week in New York for the first time.

The former world No. 11's ceiling at Flushing Meadows was previously the second round, but she snapped her round-two losing sequence on her fifth try 12 months ago, only to fall to Beatriz Haddad Maia in straight sets.

Kalinskaya, though, is back in the third round in consecutive years, having defeated Clervie Ngounoue 6-0, 5-7, 6-4 in her tournament opener and Yulia Putintseva 6-1, 7-5 on Thursday.

While the 26-year-old is relatively inexperienced at making deep runs in majors, she could exploit an encouraging head-to-head record with Swiatek and her form preceding the final Grand Slam of 2025.

Kalinskaya has had a positive North American hard-court swing this summer, reaching the WTA 500 final in Washington before losing to Leylah Fernandez in the title match, advancing to the third round in Montreal and making the last eight in Cincinnati.

After struggling for consistency in stringing wins together, the world No. 29 has managed four in the United States capital and three in a row in Cincy, helping to improve a 2025 record that stands at 21-16.

Now, she aims to put that positive form to the test against the world No. 2 and co-favourite for the US Open title.

Tournament so far

Anna Kalinskaya

First round: vs. Clervie Ngounoue 6-0 5-7 6-4

Second round: vs. Yulia Putintseva 6-1 7-5

Iga Swiatek:

First round: vs. Emiliana Arango 6-1 6-2

Second round: vs. Suzan Lamens 6-1 4-6 6-4

Head To Head

Cincinnati (2025) - Quarter-finals: Swiatek 6-3 6-4

Dubai (2024) - Semi-finals: Kalinskaya 6-4 6-4

Swiatek and Kalinskaya are tied at 1-1 heading into their third encounter on the women’s tour.

The world No. 29 beat the second seed in the Dubai semi-final last year, although the Russian could not secure the title, ultimately losing to Jasmine Paolini in the three-set final.

However, Swiatek won their recent clash in Cincinnati before going on to claim the title, giving the 2022 US Open champion a psychological advantage.

Having been broken four times in Dubai last year, the world No. 2 lost serve once in their rematch in Cincy, and the Pole will be mindful of the need to be solid on serve on Saturday.

We say: Swiatek to win in two sets

Kalinskaya’s recent upswing makes the Russian a tricky challenge for Swiatek, but the world No. 2's current level is sufficient to beat most players on the tour, making her the favourite to get the job done in two sets at the 29th seed’s expense.