Preview: US Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, form, head-to-head

Ajla Tomljanovic aims to inflict Coco Gauff’s earliest US Open defeat in five years in Tuesday night’s first-round match at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The American No. 1, who could replace Aryna Sabalenka as the world No. 1 under certain conditions, has made changes to her coaching team just before the final Slam of the year and seeks to avoid an upset against the former world No. 32.

Match preview

Gauff's 2025 season has been unusual, marked by a strong, unbeaten start, a dip in form before the clay season and then securing a second Slam at the French Open.

However, the American’s ongoing struggles on serve have undermined and limited her, with those issues emerging unexpectedly during matches, resulting in a surplus of double faults.

Aiming to address that flaw in her game, Gauff has parted ways with Matt Daly and brought in Gavin MacMillan on the eve of the final major of 2025, which should improve those serve issues in the long term.

A biomechanics expert, MacMillian played a key role in Sabalenka's development from a ball basher with serving issues to a more reliable player, and the American No. 1 aims for a similar improvement with her serve.

Having suffered a first-round defeat at Wimbledon, the first time she has been beaten so early at a Major since 2023 at the Championships, Gauff aims for a deep run in her home tournament.

Seeking to disrupt the American player’s ambitions is Tomljanovic, whose best performance at Flushing Meadows was in 2022.

The most significant victory en route to reaching the last eight was against 23-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams, who retired after that year’s tournament.

Although the Zagreb-born player has never quite managed to replicate her 2022 run, the 32-year-old hopes to maintain her streak of not exiting in the first round in the United States since 2020.

Tomljanovic’s conqueror on the day was Angelique Kerber in straight sets, but she has since recorded first-round wins over Katie Volynets, Karolina Muchova, Panna Udvardy and Ann Li.

Nevertheless, a 2-5 record entering the final Grand Slam of the year highlights the struggles of this out-of-form player, who has not advanced beyond the second round of any Major since 2022's run in New York.

Head To Head

Paris Olympics (2024) – First round: Gauff 6-3 6-0

Gauff achieved a straightforward 6-3, 6-0 victory in her only encounter with Tomljanovic last year at the Paris Olympics.

The American enters the final Grand Slam of 2025 with a season record of 35-12, considerably ahead of the 32-year-old, who has a 20-19 record overall this year.

The 21-year-old American’s 17-5 win-loss record at Flushing Meadows surpasses the Zagreb-born player’s 12-10 record, despite playing in the main draw five fewer times than the player 11 years her senior.

We say: Gauff to win in two sets

Despite Gauff’s challenges on serve unlikely to vanish overnight, the American is expected to steer clear of a shock exit against an opponent who has not beaten a top-10 player since defeating Paula Badosa in Cincinnati three years ago.

Therefore, we are backing the third seed to extend the 32-year-old's eight-match losing run against top-tier players and move on to the next round.