Preview: Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh from becoming the second-oldest Australian Open semi-finalist, Novak Djokovic aims to stun two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner and reach Sunday’s final.

The Serbian star was incredibly fortunate to advance after Lorenzo Musetti retired despite leading by two sets, but he must now solve his Sinner riddle to reach an 11th title match Down Under.

Match preview

The stars may be aligning for the 10-time Australian Open champion after Wednesday’s events against Musetti, who outplayed the 38-year-old to claim sets one and two.

Having received a walkover in the fourth round after Jakub Mensik’s withdrawal, the 24-time Major winner was handed another slice of good fortune as Italy’s No. 2 could not continue because of injury.

Handed a significant lifeline, Djokovic — whose ‘victory’ against Musetti was his 103rd in Australia — has now surpassed Roger Federer (102) for the most wins at the first Slam of the year in the Open Era.

Apart from the 2022 tournament, when he was absent due to his COVID-19 vaccination status, Djokovic has now reached seven Australian Open semi-finals, and he bids to reach the title match for the 11th time.

Having seen his four-year winning run ended by Friday’s opponent two years ago, Djokovic’s unfortunate injury 12 months ago against Alexander Zverev forced him out of the tournament at this stage.

Back a year later with fewer miles in his legs than in recent Majors — where either Carlos Alcaraz or Sinner have beaten him — the veteran hopes that having more left in the tank will prove decisive against the finest hard-court player in the world.

That ambition will be far easier said than done for Djokovic, as he faces the three-peat-chasing Sinner in Melbourne, aiming to snap the Italian’s 19-match winning streak at the Slam.

The 24-year-old’s latest triumph brought him level with Federer’s 19-match winning run here (2006-2008), and another victory will take the Italian No. 1 joint-third on 20 consecutive successes with Ivan Lendl.

To achieve that, the second seed must overcome a player he has had the measure of over the past two years, winning their last five meetings on the ATP Tour after suffering four defeats in their first five contests.

The four-time Grand Slam champion’s victory over Ben Shelton on Wednesday marked his ninth win in a row over the American — all without dropping a set — and he carries a three-match winning sequence of that nature against the Serb into Friday’s showdown with the 10-time Australian Open champion.

Now at 50 wins in 60 hard-court matches at Slams — Federer (59 matches) was the last player to hit a half-century of wins in fewer contests — Sinner now seeks a 51st to set up a possible final against friendly rival Alcaraz, who takes on Zverev in the day’s earlier semi-final.

Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-3 6-2 6-2

Second round: vs. Francesco Maestrelli 6-3 6-2 6-2

Third round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 7-6[4]

Round of 16: vs. Jakub Mensik (W/O)

Quarter-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 4-6 3-6 3-1 (ret)

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Hugo Gaston 6-2 6-1 (ret)

Second round: vs. James Duckworth 6-1 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Eliot Spizzirri 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Luciano Darderi 6-1 6-3 7-6[2]

Quarter-final: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

Wimbledon (2025) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 6-3 6-4

French Open (2025) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-4 7-5 7-6(3)

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Final: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-3

Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3

Davis Cup Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-2 2-6 7-5

ATP Finals (2023) - Final: Djokovic 6-3 6-3

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sinner 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2)

Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)

Wimbledon (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2

Monte-Carlo Masters (2021) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-4 6-2

When Sinner lost the ATP Finals title match to Djokovic in 2023, the Serbian held a 4-1 lead in a lopsided rivalry.

However, the Italian has reeled off five consecutive wins over the 24-time Major champion, including at three Grand Slams — Australian Open (2024), French Open and Wimbledon (both 2025) — underlining the world No. 2’s ascent and dominance.

Interestingly, Djokovic’s only victory over Sinner on a hard court came in Turin three years ago; Sinner has claimed four wins on the surface, including both in outdoor conditions: the Australian Open in 2024 and the Shanghai Masters later that year.

Having won 12 consecutive matches against top-10 opponents, the Italian is the undeniable favourite to record a 13th at Djokovic’s expense, thereby extending his 6-4 lead in their head-to-head.

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

Despite having fewer miles in his legs, Djokovic cannot afford to play at the level he showed in sets one and two against Musetti on Friday, as that would allow Sinner to beat him comfortably in a quick match on Rod Laver Arena.

Spending less time on court en route to the last four in Melbourne points to the 10-time champion entering his 11th meeting with Italy’s No. 1 significantly fresher than in previous contests at the backend of Majors.

While his comparative freshness should mean taking a set off the two-time defending champion, it is hard to picture the greatest of all time outlasting Sinner at his favourite playground, especially under the lights.

The Italian should win in four to reach a third consecutive final, ending Djokovic’s eight-match winning sequence dating back to last year, to inflict the Serb's fifth consecutive semi-final defeat at a Slam.