Preview: Australian Open: Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic - prediction, form, head-to-head

Meeting for the first time in a Grand Slam singles event, Denis Shapovalov battles Marin Cilic in the second round of the Australian Open.

In his opener, the Canadian got past Yunchaokete Bu 6-3, 7-6 (7-3), 6-1, with his upcoming opponent defeating Daniel Altmaier 6-0, 6-0, 7-6 (7-3).

Match preview

Denis Shapovalov maintained his strong form in round one, keeping his Chinese opponent on the run throughout the match with a serve that clocked in as fast as 217 km per hour.

Even with his 21st seeding at this tournament, he will feel supremely confident about his chances to make a long run in Melbourne, defeating three top 10 players last year including Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud.

The high-risk left-hander has only made it beyond the second round in one of his previous five Grand Slam singles appearances, exiting the last US Open in four sets to Jannik Sinner.

A win for him this week would mark his first appearance in round three of this tournament since 2023, when he beat Taro Daniel in straight sets to get to that point.

The Canadian had 19 aces in his opening match this week and hit a total of 47 winners to advance into the second round of this event for a second year running.

He won 16 of his 21 net points but uncharacteristically committed 38 unforced errors in the match, which lasted two hours and 15 minutes.

Heading into 2026, Cilic seems to be getting back into form after a couple of years riddled with injuries.

The 2018 finalist in this tournament was once ranked as low as 666th in 2023 but has skyrocketed back up to #70 to begin this year.

In his opening match at this event, the 2014 US Open champion fired 20 aces against his German counterpart, while winning 88% of his first serves.

This week, he will be seeking his first trip to the third round of Australia since 2022, when he reached round four before losing to Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets.

Cilic hit 48 winners in his opener, with the Croatian winning 10 of his 12 net points and 19 return points in the two-hour and one-minute match.

On the other hand, he only won 65% of his second serves throughout the contest but only committed three double faults overall.

Tournament so far

Denis Shapovalov:

First round: vs. Yunchaokete Bu 6-3 7-6 (7-3) 6-1

Marin Cilic:

First round: vs. Daniel Altmaier 6-0 6-0 7-6 (7-3)

Head To Head

Swiss Indoors (2018) : Cilic wins 6-4 6-2

Indian Wells Open (2019) - Third Round: Shapovalov wins 6-4 6-2

Provence Open (2020) - Second Round: Shapovalov wins 6-4 4-6 6-2

Western and Southern Open (2020) - First Round: Shapovalov wins 6-3 6-3

Mercedes Cup (2021) - Quarter-Finals: Cilic wins 7-5 7-6

Despite registering six aces the first time he met Cilic in 2018, Shapovalov was badly outplayed on second serves, with the Croatian boasting a percentage over 73 in that department, while the Canadian was at just over 30%.

The following year, the 2020 US Open quarter-finalist won over 90% of his first serves while converting three of his five break point opportunities in the victory.

In France a year later, Cilic couldn’t handle his opponent's serve with the Canadian hitting 17 aces in his three-set triumph.

Later that year in New York, Shapovalov converted three of his four break point opportunities, while not allowing any to Cilic in another victory.

The last time these two met in Germany, Cilic had a first serve percentage of over 87 with eight aces to outlast the Canadian in a pair of tiebreakers.

We say: Shapovalov to win in four sets

Cilic has come a long way over the past few months, but Shapovalov is just playing on another level right now, and given some of his wins last year, he is not likely to be intimidated by the Croatian’s past resume.