Preview:ATP Finals: Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Minaur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Looking to move on from respective disappointments in their second matches in the ATP World Tour Finals, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur face off on Thursday for the 10th time on the ATP Tour to decide qualification in the Jimmy Connors Group.

Fritz was the dominant player against a ropey Carlos Alcaraz, only to lose his first-set advantage and fall in three sets; meanwhile, the Demon blew a 5-3 lead in the third set against Lorenzo Musetti, losing to the home debutant and leaving him winless at the year-end tournament.

Match preview

Having only defeated Alcaraz for the first time in the Laver Cup this year, Fritz’s opening-set tie-break success over the year-end No. 1-chasing Spanish sensation augured well for his prospects of a second.

However, the American was to rue missed opportunities and failing to capitalise on one of the 22-year-old’s more subpar performances, falling to defeat after two hours and 48 minutes.

Aiming to move on from that setback, the 2024 Finals runner-up enters Thursday seeking to defeat De Minaur for the sixth time on the men’s tour to extend the Australian’s losing run at the year-end tournament.

Success for the American No. 2 would be his 54th of 2025, putting him in a strong position to advance; Alcaraz beating Musetti in the other match in the group assures the 2024 finalist of a semi-final berth, but the opposite could mean it comes down to little margins in the percentage of games won.

Hoping for the former outcome, Fritz must do his part to improve his 6-4 indoor record and 53-22 overall to stake a claim to the last four.

The Demon is likely to be wondering how he came so close to clinching a maiden victory at the year-end Finals when he led Musetti 5-3 and served for the match at 5-4.

However, the Italian No. 2 rallied, bolstered by the support received inside Inalpi Arena, to leave the Aussie star empty-handed in Turin in two matches this year and five overall after last year’s winless run.

Tuesday’s defeat, while disappointing, continued the 10-time ATP titleholder’s wretched record while playing top-level opponents, as seen in his 1-10 record in such matches in 2025.

While two of those losses have been to Carlos Alcaraz and three to Jannik Sinner, the 26-year-old has also been beaten by Novak Djokovic, Andrey Rublev, Ben Shelton and, most recently, by Musetti in Turin.

The Australian player’s only victory came against Alexander Zverev at the Laver Cup, meaning the former world No. 6 has yet to win a proper tour-level match against elite opponents since beating Daniil Medvedev at Roland Garros last year — a statistic the Demon seeks to change this week.

Tournament so far

Taylor Fritz:

Round Robin: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 6-4

Round Robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 7-6[2] 5-7 3-6

Alex de Minaur:

Round Robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-7[5] 2-6

Round Robin: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 5-7 6-3 5-7

Head To Head

Davis Cup Finals (2024) – Quarter-final: Fritz 6-3 6-4

ATP Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Fritz 5-7 6-4 6-3

United Cup (2024) - Round Robin: De Minaur 6-4 6-2

Canada Masters (2023) - Round of 16: De Minaur 7-6(7) 4-6 6-1

Eastbourne (2022) – Semi-final: Fritz 6-1 6-7(5) 6-3

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 16: Fritz 3-6 6-4 7-6(5)

US Open (2021) – First round: Fritz 7-6(4) 6-2 1-6 6-4

Basel (2019) - Round of 16: De Minaur 6-3 6-3

Atlanta (2019) - Final: De Minaur 6-3 7-6(2)

Next Gen ATP Finals (2018) - Round Robin: De Minaur 4-3(8) 4-1 4-2

Both players have won five matches each, heading into their 11th meeting tied at 5-5, with the victor taking a 6-5 lead after Thursday.

Striking about their meetings is the streaks of wins: De Minaur won the first three, Fritz the next three, then two wins each for the Australian and the United States star.

Interestingly, nine of their 10 matches have been on hard courts, with the Demon claiming five and Fritz winning four.

Of those nine, four have been on indoor hard courts, of which both men have won two each; however, Fritz has prevailed in the most recent two, coming at the ATP Finals and Davis Cup Finals last year, while the Aussie’s two victories were in 2018 and 2019.

We say: Fritz to win in three sets

De Minaur’s dismal record against top 10 opponents has been a letdown for the 10-time ATP Champion, whose 1-10 record against the elite opponents could worsen against Fritz, whose serve should score him some cheap points in what should be a tight contest.