Preview:ATP Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Less than 24 hours after taking down Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime returns to Inalpi Arena to face freshly minted year-end No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in Saturday’s ATP World Tour Finals semi-final.

The Canadian star beat the world No. 3 in two tight sets in two hours and seven minutes to reach the last four in the year-end tournament for the first time, where he will face the top seed, who went 3-0 in the round-robin stage to secure the No. 1 ranking.

Match preview

Zverev went into his third round-robin match against Auger-Aliassime seemingly looking forward to a rematch with Jannik Sinner, having felt that his loss to the Italian in Turin was closer than the score (Sinner won 6-4,6-3) suggested.

Although that may have been viewed as arrogant, especially since the German would need to beat Auger-Aliassime and Alcaraz to earn a potential rematch with the home favourite, the two-time ATP Finals champion’s history at the year-end tournament meant he could not be overlooked.

Auger-Aliassime had other ideas, however, defeating the German 6-4, 7-6(4) in just over two hours to secure consecutive wins in the round-robin and book a place in the event’s semi-final for the first time.

Having started the week fearing that an injured calf might force a withdrawal and prevent him from taking to the court to face Ben Shelton and Zverev, the Canadian No. 1 has played brilliantly to hit the 50-win mark for the second time in his career, following 2022.

That feat has seen the indoors specialist emulate Milos Raonic as the second Canadian to reach the last four at the year-end tournament since 2016’s event, and he now seeks a stunning win over co-favourite Alcaraz to compete in Sunday’s title match.

The Spanish sensation entered the tournament in Turin knowing he needed three wins from three in the group stage to seal the No. 1 ranking at Sinner’s expense, and he did just that, beating Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti to reclaim the crown.

As a result, Alcaraz emulated Novak Djokovic (22 years, 164 days), as the youngest player (22 days, 188 days at the time of his feat) to secure as many as 70 wins in a season to match the Serbian’s number of victories in 2009, and aims to clinch a 71st success to reach a tour-leading 11th final in 2025.

Alcaraz enters the match holding a 10-1 record in semi-final contests for the season, having won nine last-four contests in a row since falling to Jack Draper at Indian Wells in March.

While a blip in Paris against Cameron Norrie was far from ideal preparation for the Finals in Turin, the world No. 1 has responded with three straight indoor victories in Turin to reach another semi-final after 2023’s run.

Djokovic got the better of the Spanish sensation on that occasion, and the 22-year-old aims to avoid the same outcome against an in-form Auger-Aliassime to face Sinner or Alex de Minaur in Sunday’s final.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Round Robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-6[5] 6-2

Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-7[2] 7-5 6-3

Round Robin: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1

Felix Auger-Aliassime:

Round Robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 5-7 1-6

Round Robin: vs. Ben Shelton 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5

Round Robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-4 7-6[4]

Head To Head

Paris Olympics (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-1 6-1

Roland Garros (2024) - Fourth round: Alcaraz 6-3 6-3 6-1

Indian Wells (2024) - Third round: Alcaraz 6-2 6-3

Indian Wells (2023) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-4 6-4

Basel (2022) - Semi-final: Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-2

Davis Cup (2022) - Round Robin: Auger-Aliassime 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2

US Open (2021) - Quarter-final: Auger-Aliassime 6-3 3-1 ret.

Alcaraz leads Auger-Aliassime 4-3 in their head-to-head on the ATP Tour, having defeated the Canadian in four consecutive matches after losing the first three.

Overturning a 0-3 record against the eight-time ATP champion with wins at Indian Wells in 2023 and 2024, the fourth round at last year’s French Open and the Paris Olympics.

However, those four straight wins do not guarantee success against Auger-Aliassime, whose three wins over Alcaraz have come on hard courts, with two in 2022 on indoor surfaces.

The 25-year-old holds a 5-5 record in semi-final contests in 2025, winning his last two in Brussels and Paris after losing four in a row, and seeks a third straight win in such matches for the first time this year, marking his first successful streak of that nature since 2022.

We say: Auger-Aliassime to win in three sets

While the obvious bet would be expecting another final clash between Alcaraz and Sinner, Auger-Aliassime’s form after Wimbledon (24-7) has been impressive.

Playing freely and without fear in Turin following an initial injury scare, we will take a risk and back the Canadian for an upset victory over the world No. 1.