Preview:ATP Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

The Inalpi Arena in Turin will witness the 16th instalment of Carlos Alcaraz versus Jannik Sinner on Sunday, as the world No. 1 and world No. 2 tussle in the championship match of the ATP World Tour Finals.

Sinner, the defending champion and almost untouchable in these conditions, will be competing in his third consecutive final at the year-end finale, but he must solve his Alcaraz riddle to claim back-to-back titles on home soil by defeating the first-time finalist.

Match preview

If Paris reignited doubts about Alcaraz on indoor hard courts, the Spanish sensation going 4-0 in Turin has somewhat quieted those uncertainties.

Defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime, a specialist in these conditions, quite comfortably highlighted one thing we already knew: when the world No. 1 is on form and dialled in, hardly anyone on the men’s tour can match him.

Auger-Aliassime was backed for an upset victory in Turin; however, Alcaraz raised his level, especially in the opening set, en route to a 6-2, 6-4 win to reach another title match in 2025 — his 11th of the season.

The world No. 1 had advanced to nine championship matches in a row until Cameron Norrie beat him in the French capital at the end of October, leading to questions about the 22-year-old’s adaptability to indoor conditions; his Rotterdam title in February seemed a long time ago.

Responding in style, the six-time Grand Slam champion has defeated Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti and Auger-Aliassime, dropping one set against Fritz, to reach his maiden final at the season finale.

At 22 years and 188 days, the Spanish sensation thus broke new ground by supplanting Alexander Zverev (24 years, 95 days) as the youngest player to compete in title matches at a Grand Slam, a Masters 1000, the Olympics and the ATP Finals.

Now, Alcaraz, the first Spaniard since Rafael Nadal in 2013 to reach the title match at the season finale, must take down the home favourite in Turin on his maiden appearance in this year-end showpiece final to end the season on a resounding high.

Facing Sinner in Turin means that the top seed may not only compete against an opponent on a 30-match winning run on indoor hard courts, but he must also face the defending champion’s partisan support on Sunday.

Alcaraz may have had a taste of this in his final round-robin match against Musetti, but Sinner is a different challenge entirely, underlined by his winning streak indoors, including nine victories in Turin, all without dropping a set.

De Minaur was the Italian’s latest victim, falling 7-5, 6-2 in almost two hours in Saturday’s first semi-final in his 13th straight defeat to the four-time Grand Slam champion.

Sinner’s latest victory also confirmed one thing: he becomes the third man after Roger Federer (2006, 2007) and Novak Djokovic (2015, 2023) to reach the final of all four Slams and the ATP Finals in the same season; Federer and Djokovic were victorious on both occasions at the year-end tournament.

Having emulated both icons of the sport by surging to a third consecutive final in Turin, the 24-year-old home favourite now bids to secure only his sixth victory over his friendly rival for a successful title defence.

While he may not have succeeded in finishing as year-end No. 1, claiming the crown at the season finale should provide some satisfaction and undeniable consolation.

However, Sinner must find solutions against the one man who has his number on the tour to achieve it; he must move on from the chastening US Open final defeat only two months ago to end the year on a high.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Round Robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-6[5] 6-2

Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-7[2] 7-5 6-3

Round Robin: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1

Semi-final: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2 6-4

Jannik Sinner:

Round Robin: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1

Round Robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3

Round Robin: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6[3]

Semi-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-5 6-2

Head To Head

US Open (2025) - Final: Alcaraz 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4

Cincinnati Masters (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 5-0 ret

Wimbledon (2025) – Final: Sinner 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4

French Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 4–6 6–7(4) 6–4 7–6(3) 7–6 (10–2)

Italian Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz 7-6(5) 6-1

China Open (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)

French Open (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 1-6 6-3 6-2

China Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-1

Miami Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-7(4)6-4 6-2

Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 7-6(4) 6-3

US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3

Croatia Open (2022) - Final: Sinner 6-7(5) 6-1 6-1

Wimbledon (2022) – Fourth round: Sinner 6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3

Paris Masters (2021) - Second round: Alcaraz 7-6(1) 7-5

Sinner once led Alcaraz 4-3 in their head-to-head on the ATP Tour; however, the Spanish star has won seven of their previous eight meetings, opening a 10-5 lead.

While past defeats to the six-time Grand Slam champion were often tightly contested, the Italian faced a significant setback in New York, where he lost his US Open title, prompting him to make adjustments on serve and playing style.

Sinner has undeniably played with increased variety since then, while his first-serve percentage and points won on his first deliveries have improved; still, it remains to be seen if that suffices against his friendly rival.

Sunday’s final will be only their second on indoor hard courts since their maiden contest in Paris four years ago, which Alcaraz won in two tight sets.

Altogether, the Spaniard holds a 7-2 advantage in hard-court meetings, winning the last four; he also leads 5-2 in their overall final clashes, claiming all three on hard courts.

Alcaraz’s latest win brought him to 71-8 for the season, significantly higher than Sinner’s 57-6, and he seeks his 72nd to secure his ninth crown of 2025, preventing the Italian from clinching his sixth title.

We say: Sinner to win in three sets

Sinner has served almost flawlessly all week, demonstrating notable improvement from the player who struggled to land his first delivery in Flushing, as seen by hitting the right spot on just 48.2% of those serves in the US Open final.

The Italian has not dropped below 70% in Turin, and this marked improvement suggests that Sunday’s match against Alcaraz is likely to be more competitive.

Despite losing five of their last six championship encounters, we favour the second seed to successfully defend his title in Turin and draw level with his rival on 24 titles in Sunday’s grand final.