Preview:ATP Finals: Alexander Zverev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime will duke it out for the second qualifying spot in the Bjorn Borg Group to secure a semi-final spot at the ATP World Tour Finals.

The German failed to take several break-point chances against Jannik Sinner on Wednesday night, losing in straight sets; meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime overcame doubts about his physical condition to seal a comeback victory over debutant Ben Shelton, thereby eliminating the American No. 1.

Match preview

Still unable to solve his Sinner riddle, Zverev lost for the third time in 17 days against the Italian No. 1, falling 6-4, 6-3 on Wednesday to enter his final round-robin match at 1-1.

Seeking a different outcome to end a four-match losing run against the world No. 2, the German superstar could not convert on seven chances on the home favourite’s serve as he slipped to a sixth defeat overall against the Italian, trailing 4-6 in their rivalry, having previously led 4-1.

In fairness, Zverev was unfortunate that Sinner was clutch on all seven break points faced, delivering fierce and well-placed first serves each time to give the two-time Finals champion little chance on those opportunities.

As a result, the 28-year-old now enters Friday needing to win to keep hopes of a third title at the year-end tournament alive, hoping to defeat his Canadian opponent for a seventh time at tour-level.

That outcome will not be expected, despite Auger-Aliassime’s competence on indoor hard courts, especially considering that the 24-time ATP champion has defeated the world No. 8 both times in those conditions.

Nevertheless, Auger-Aliassime’s battling qualities were on display in the earlier match inside Inalpi Arena, defeating Shelton 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5 after two hours and 25 minutes.

In a match mostly short on long rallies due to both players’ big-serving and hard-hitting style, the eight-time ATP titleholder won a tight tie-break and got the decisive break in the deciding set to beat and eliminate ‘Box Office Ben’ on the American’s debut at the Finals.

Fresh off his 40th hard-court victory of the season, the 25-year-old will back himself to record a 41st against his German opponent, having claimed a four-set win over the world No. 3 in their recent meeting at the US Open.

That victory followed consecutive losses against Zverev, albeit two years apart in 2022 and 2024, but the Canadian star’s ongoing form stands him in good stead to secure a maiden spot in the year-end event’s final four.

Entering Friday's match at 23-7 since his Wimbledon exit, during which he has reached the quarter-finals in Cincinnati, semi-finals in New York at the US Open, last eight in Shanghai, claimed the title in Brussels, made it to the quarters in Basel and made it to the title match in Paris; now, he seeks a 24th victory in the last four months to reach his maiden semi-final match at the ATP Finals at Zverev's expense.

Tournament so far

Alexander Zverev:

Round Robin: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6[6]

Round Robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 4-6 3-6

Felix Auger-Aliassime:

Round Robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 5-7 1-6

Round Robin: vs. Ben Shelton 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5

Head To Head

US Open (2025) - Third round: Auger-Aliassime 4-6 7-6(7) 6-4 6-4

Miami Masters (2024) - Second round: Zverev 6-2 6-4

Madrid Masters (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev 6-3 7-5

ATP Cup (2022) - Round Robin: Auger-Aliassime 6-4 4-6 6-3

Vienna (2021) - Quarter-final: Zverev 6-4 3-6 6-3

Wimbledon (2021) - Fourth round: Auger-Aliassime 6-4 7-6(6) 3-6 3-6 6-4

Cologne 1 (2020) - Final: Zverev 6-3 6-3

Beijing (2019) - Round of 16: Zverev 6-3 6-1

Monte-Carlo Masters (2019) - Round of 32: Zverev 6-1 6-4

Zverev holds a 6-3 lead over Auger-Aliassime on the ATP Tour heading into their 10th meeting in Turin.

While two of the Canadian's three wins have been on hard courts, he has surprisingly lost both meetings on indoor conditions, falling in Cologne in 2020 and Vienna the following year.

Zverev leads their hard-court meetings 4-2, although the German has suffered defeats in two of the last three encounters, having claimed wins in their first three meetings on the surface.

We say: Auger-Aliassime to win in three sets

Having been physically uncertain at some point to even play against Shelton, Auger-Aliassime lasted over two hours to beat the American No. 1 player to keep his hopes alive heading into facing Zverev.

That stands him in good stead to get the better of the German for the third time in four meetings on hard courts, as the Canadian seeks his first win indoors against the two-time ATP Finals champion.