Preview:ATP Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz can secure the year-end No. 1 ranking with a victory over Lorenzo Musetti in the final match of the round-robin stage of the ATP World Tour Finals in the Jimmy Connors Group.

Needing three wins to eclipse Jannik Sinner, the Spanish star overcame a slow start to beat Taylor Fritz on Tuesday; meanwhile, Musetti needed a third-set miracle to overcome Alex de Minaur in the day’s other contest to seal a maiden Finals victory and add even more intrigue to the final group-stage matches.

Match preview

Alcaraz is typically the fan favourite wherever he goes, but even he must be expecting fans inside the Inalpi Arena to root for Musetti in the round-robin match on Thursday.

The six-time Grand Slam champion enters the contest at 2-0 in the Jimmy Connors Group, after following a straightforward victory over De Minaur with a hard-fought one against Fritz.

For much of the contest, the 22-year-old looked to be heading toward his second defeat to the American in the space of two months, only for his resilience to kick in, resulting in a stirring 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3 in two hours and 48 minutes.

That result leaves Alcaraz on the brink of being assured of the No. 1 ranking to close out the year, which would be deserved after an outstanding year during which he has claimed 69 wins and secured eight titles.

Facing Musetti, against whom he enjoys a favourable record, stands him in good stead to end the group unbeaten and surge into the semi-finals in Turin.

While it cannot be argued that Alcaraz is the fresher player, the home debutant cannot be said to lack heart after a remarkable comeback victory over De Minaur on Tuesday night.

Despite winning the opening set, the Athens finalist’s energy levels plummeted in sets two and most of the decider, and elimination seemed imminent.

However, down 3-5 in the decider, Musetti rallied to win the next four games for an unforeseen 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 win to put him in with a chance of reaching the final four in Torino.

While defeat against Alcaraz on Thursday will not necessarily result in elimination if De Minaur defeats Fritz in the group’s other match, a second tour-level success over the Spanish sensation definitely sends the Italian debutant into the semis.

That outcome may seem far-fetched given his ongoing six-match losing run against the Spanish sensation; however, the Italian, who has now improved to 45-20 in 2025, will hope to draw on the crowd's support to stun the 24-time ATP champion and possibly seal a semi-final berth.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Round Robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-6[5] 6-2

Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-7[2] 7-5 6-3

Lorenzo Musetti:

Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 3-6 4-6

Round Robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-5 3-6 7-5

Head To Head

French Open (2025) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 4-6 7-6(3) 6-0 2-0 ret.

Rome Masters (2025) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(4)

Monte-Carlo Masters (2025) - Final: Alcaraz 3-6 6-1 6-0

Miami Masters (2024) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-3 6-3

Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-2 6-2

French Open (2023) – Fourth round: Alcaraz 6-3 6-2 6-2

Hamburg (2022) - Final: Musetti 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4

Since defeating Alcaraz in Hamburg in their first meeting on the ATP Tour, the latter has won six in a row to lead 6-1 in their head-to-head.

Three of those matches have been in 2025, all on clay, and Thursday’s contest will be their first on a hard court this season and third overall after Beijing (2023) and Miami (2024); both encounters went Alcaraz’s way in straight sets.

The Spanish superstar’s victory over Fritz was his 50th over a top-10 opponent; meanwhile, Musetti’s defeat of De Minaur was the Italian’s first over an elite player on a hard court this year, and he seeks another at Alcaraz’s expense.

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Musetti will finally get some rest after exertions in Athens, followed by matches on consecutive days in Turin.

However, that is unlikely to make much of a difference as Alcaraz is likely to defeat the home player in straight sets to seal the year-end No. 1 ranking and book a semi-final berth, leaving Musetti hoping for a favourable De Minaur victory over Fritz.