Preview:ATP Finals: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Alexander Zverev will be sick of the sight of Jannik Sinner as they prepare for Wednesday’s ATP World Tour Finals clash in the Bjorn Borg Group.

The Italian has beaten the 24-time ATP champion and two-time Finals winner in their last four encounters and aims to avoid another defeat, which would most likely secure his qualification to the semi-finals in Turin.

Match preview

Zverev began his bid for a third ATP Finals title with a strong performance, defeating debutant Ben Shelton in straight sets, beating the American No. 2 6-3, 7-6(6) in one hour and 33 minutes.

That victory was the German star's first match since a meek defeat to Sinner in the Paris Masters semi-final, where he only won one game and lost his title defence attempt.

By winning against Shelton, the world No. 3 has now matched the 18 victories of Stefan Edberg and Jimmy Connors, placing him 10th overall.

Eighteen wins are the most of any player at this year's Finals, yet the 28-year-old remains the undeniable underdog against the defending champion.

Now with a season record of 55-23, Zverev aims for his 56th win of the year and his 32nd on hard courts, having improved to 31-13 after beating Shelton on Sunday.

The German player has had an extra day’s rest compared to Sinner ahead of their 10th tour-level encounter, though the home favourite is most likely to secure a fifth consecutive win against the two-time Finals champion.

While the Italian No. 1 was dominant on first-serve points in the first set against Felix Auger-Aliassime, winning 21 out of 21, the Canadian pushed him hard until an injured calf left Auger-Aliassime physically limited.

Nevertheless, a 7-5, 6-1 victory marked the 24-year-old’s 27th consecutive win on indoor hard courts and sixth straight in Turin, having claimed the title on home soil 12 months earlier.

Sinner has also now improved to 11-2 overall at the year-end tournament, an 84.6% win rate. Not only is this record the best among current players — surpassing Novak Djokovic's 73.5% and retired Roger Federer’s 77.6% — but only Ilie Nastase's 88% win rate exceeds the 2024 champion’s since the tournament began in 1970.

Another win over Zverev would equal the 23-time ATP champion with Zverev at 55 victories, albeit from fewer matches, aiming to improve his 54-6 season record at the German's expense.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1

Alexander Zverev:

First round: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6[6]

Head To Head

Paris Masters (2025) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-0 6-1

ATP Vienna (2025) - Final: Sinner 3-6 6-3 7-5

Australian Open (2025) - Final: Sinner 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3

Cincinnati Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4)

US Open (2023) - Fourth round: Zverev 6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3

Monte-Carlo Masters (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev 5-7 6-3 7-6(5)

US Open (2021) - Fourth round: Zverev 6-4 6-4 7-6(7)

Cologne 2 (2020) - Semi-final: Zverev 7-6(3) 6-3

French Open (2020) - Fourth round: Sinner 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3

Sinner won their first match on the ATP Tour, but Zverev then surged to a 4-1 lead.

However, the Italian No. 1 has claimed four consecutive wins in this rivalry, turning the deficit around to lead their head-to-head 5-4, and he is favoured to extend that lead.

Having dropped just two sets across his four wins over the third seed, the world No. 2's ongoing dominance over the big-serving German is emphasised.

Zverev’s record against the top 10 in 2025 has been underwhelming, with victories against Shelton (twice), Djokovic — who retired after one set in Australia — and Lorenzo Musetti; the 24-time ATP champion’s 4-9 record this season is undoubtedly below par.

In contrast, Sinner holds a 15-4 record against the top 10 in 2025 and a 21-4 record since the start of last year's ATP Finals, illustrating the Italian's ability to consistently beat elite opponents, apart from Carlos Alcaraz, who has inflicted all four of his losses on the No. 2-ranked player.

We say: Sinner to win in two sets

With only Alcaraz defeating Sinner among the top-10 players in the last year, the home hope's adeptness against such opponents is clear, and he is likely to secure a fifth consecutive win over Zverev, raising the Italian’s head-to-head advantage to 6-4.