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Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's ATP Finals round-robin match between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Assured of a record-extending eighth year-end number one ranking, Novak Djokovic continues the defence of his ATP World Tour Finals crown against Jannik Sinner in Tuesday's top-of-the-table Green group battle.

The reigning champion put Holger Rune to the sword in a three-set spectacular on Sunday, while Sinner delighted the Turin crowd with a two-set beating of Stefanos Tsitsipas.


Match preview

Novak Djokovic celebrates after winning his group stage match against Denmark's Holger Rune on November 12, 2023© Reuters

While a seventh ATP Finals title would not go amiss for Djokovic - who would overtake fellow six-time winner Roger Federer to create a category of his own with success in Italy - finishing the 2023 season on his rightful throne at the top of the rankings was the overriding goal for the esteemed Serbian.

Djokovic simply needed to avoid losing all of his matches to deny Carlos Alcaraz - who in turn had to win the tournament without suffering defeat - the top placement, and the 24-time Grand Slam winner needed just one contest to guarantee another year at the summit, although he was made to work extremely hard for his triumph over Rune.

Barely a week on from eliminating the Dane from the Paris Masters - avenging his loss to a then-teenage Rune in the 2022 final - Djokovic recovered from a disastrous second-set tiebreaker and prevailed 7-6[4] 6-7[1] 6-3 in an enthralling three-hour contest, sealing it in style with a 39th winner for a final love hold.

Sitting pretty in second place in the Green group owing to his hard-fought triumph, in which he made just nine errors and struck 10 aces, the 36-year-old old has insisted that an unparalleled seventh year-end title would be a mere "bonus" alongside his number one ranking, and he is now 40-3 at the ATP Finals after winning the opening set.

Not since a round-robin loss to Dominic Thiem in 2019 has Djokovic been bested at the championships after winning the first set - triumphing in 10 such contests since - and if that was not enough, the Serbian is now one match away from 15 top-10 wins in 2023, which would see him set an outright calendar-year record for players aged 35 and over.

Jannik Sinner reacts at the ATP Finals on November 12, 2023© Reuters

Rune was only the second player - after Daniil Medvedev last year - to keep Djokovic on court for over three hours in an ATP Finals contest, but the Turin faithful will certainly not mind another late night if their beloved Sinner can make the clock tick over 180 minutes in Tuesday's crunch meeting.

Two years on from his year-end tournament debut - albeit as an alternate to Matteo Berrettini - Sinner laid down a marker on his proper ATP Finals baptism as a direct qualifier, sinking 2019 winner Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4 to surge to the top of the Green group standings early doors.

Ignoring the 2-5 head-to-head record in the Greek's favour, the Italian took just one hour and 25 minutes to stroll to an opening victory, winning 89% of points on his first serve and firing nine aces past a beleaguered Tsitsipas - including a 122mph rocket on match point.

Mixing up devastating attacks with smart defence, Sinner did not concede a single break point to Tsitsipas on the afternoon and hit 21 winners compared to just five unforced errors, and the 22-year-old is now just two wins away from becoming the first Italian male player in the Open Era to clinch 60 victories in a single year.

In addition, Sinner has now prevailed in each of his last five meetings against top-10 opponents - no other Italian man has managed that feat since the ATP rankings were established 50 years ago - but that golden sequence may not count for much if previous results against Djokovic are anything to go by.


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

Round robin: vs. Holger Rune 7-6[4] 6-7[1] 6-3

Jannik Sinner:

Round robin: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4


Head To Head

Monte Carlo Masters (2021) - Second round: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-2
Wimbledon (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic wins 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2
Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-4 7-6[4]

Meeting once a year since 2021, Djokovic and Sinner will be squaring off on hard courts for the very first time at the top level on Tuesday, although the surface has made little difference to the Serbian's fledgling dominance in this fixture so far.

Indeed, Djokovic has three wins to shout about from three previous showdowns with Sinner, starting with a comfortable Monte Carlo Masters second-round win in 2021 before the world number one suffered a shock beating at the hands of Great Britain's Dan Evans in round three.

Sinner was on the brink of redemption in last year's Wimbledon quarters, establishing a 2-0 lead only to suffer an agonising five-set loss to the eventual champion, who also denied him his first-ever Grand Slam final appearance with a straight-sets success in the final four at SW19 this summer.


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We say: Djokovic to win in three sets

With Sinner putting Tsitsipas to the sword in less than half the time Djokovic needed to outlast Rune, the well-rested Italian is sure to make his extended recuperation period worthwhile, and his all-around prowess could create one or two problems for the defending champion.

However, Djokovic and his defensive supremacy always seems to find a way to prevail, and while the Serbian may be pushed all the way against a man 14 years his junior, we still back him to make it two for two and progress to the knockout stages.

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Novak Djokovic celebrates after winning his group stage match against Denmark's Holger Rune on November 12, 2023
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