Preview:Nitto ATP World Tour Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

In the final singles tournament of the year, top-ranked men’s player Carlos Alcaraz battles Alex de Minaur in his opening match of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals in Italy on Sunday.

The Spaniard is coming off an early exit at the Paris Masters, losing in three sets to Cameron Norrie, 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, while de Minaur lost in the quarter-finals of that event to Alexander Bublik, 7-6, 4-6, 5-7.

Match preview

The quest to end the year as the number one player on tour begins this weekend for Alcaraz, who is hoping for a better outcome this year following a series of rough outings at this event in 2024.

Last year, he lost two of his three round-robin matches in straight sets, which sent him home early after he had made it into the semi-finals in Turin in 2023.

Alcaraz needs 450 points to secure the year-end number one ranking on the men's side, while he will seek to lift his sixth singles trophy of 2025, which includes two Grand Slam titles.

In three of his previous five hard-court appearances on the singles tour, Alcaraz has gone on to win it all, though he has lost his first match in two of those previous three tournaments on that surface.

The all-court Spanish player has won 88% of his service games on the hard court this year, while capturing 69% of his service points overall.

Meanwhile, he has saved 62% of his break points and has been able to win 43% of his return points on the hard court to this stage of 2025.

It has been a relatively solid year for Alex de Minaur in the singles draw, but he is still missing that elusive first singles title of 2025.

He will hope to get it in the final singles event of the year and is coming into this tournament in strong form, making it into the quarter-finals or further in his last four individual ATP events.

The Aussie has been one of the most consistent players on tour this year, winning 55 singles matches altogether, but he is still without a statement victory.

Eight times in 2025, he has gone up against a top-10 player on the men’s side, and on each of those occasions this year’s US and Australian Open quarter-finalist came up short.

On the hard court this year, he has won 86% of his service games, though he could use a little work on his first serve, which, heading into this event, is only at 56% on this surface.

He has won just 41% of his return points on the hard court in 2025, while converting 42% of his break point opportunities in the return game.

Head To Head

Barcelona Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Alcaraz wins 7-5 6-4

Rotterdam Open (2025) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-4 3-6 6-2

Queen's Club Championship (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-4

Barcelona Open (2022) - Semi-finals: Alcaraz wins 6-7 7-6 6-4

The first meeting between these two was the closest de Minaur has come to upsetting the Spaniard, forcing a tiebreaker in the first two sets, but Alcaraz persevered thanks to his superior first serve.

In London, just over a year later, break points were the difference as Alcaraz converted both of his, and the Aussie could not register a single one.

Earlier this year in the Netherlands, de Minaur fought back from a set down to force a decisive third set, but a few more errors proved costly, with Alcaraz committing just one double fault and his opponent having four.

Unforced errors hurt the Australian at the Barcelona Open this year as he had six double faults, while Alcaraz won over 70% of his first serves and de Minaur just over 57%.

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Although he has put up some formidable fights against the top players, de Mintaur must be frustrated that he cannot break through, and we believe he may overcorrect his game on Sunday, which should enable Alcaraz to capitalise on his mistakes.