Preview:Nitto ATP World Tour Finals: Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Making his first appearance at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals, Ben Shelton begins the tournament by facing third-seeded Alexander Zverev in his opening match on Sunday in Italy.

Coming into the last singles event of 2025, Zverev was knocked out in the semi-finals of the Paris Masters by Jannik Sinner 0-6 1-6, while the American exited a round earlier against that aforementioned Italian 3-6 3-6.

Match preview

He has been close to winning numerous recent tournaments, but Alexander Zverev heads into the final event on tour this year without a singles trophy since April’s 2025 BMW Open victory in his home country.

Zverev has yet to win a singles event on the hard court this year but has made it to the semi-finals or further in his last two tournaments on that surface.

The Hamburg-born player has captured this event twice before, most recently in 2021, making the semi-finals on the singles draw a year ago.

He has not lost his opening singles match on the hard court since a Laver Cup outing in September when American Taylor Fritz beat him in straight sets 4-6 5-7.

In 2025, on this surface, he has been extremely sharp when on serve, winning 87% of his service games, while capturing 73% of his first serve points.

For the year, he has claimed 68% of his service points on the hard court but has only won 22% of his return games to this stage of 2025 on that surface.

Ben Shelton will enter the final tournament of 2025 feeling a lot better about his game, after making it to the last eight of a singles event for the first time since May.

The Atlanta-born player had failed to make it beyond the round of 16 in his previous three ATP singles events on the hard court but has only lost one of his previous eight opening matches on tour when David Goffin beat him at the Shanghai Masters.

Since being forced to retire from his round of 32 match at the US Open in August, he has won his last three singles encounters after capturing the opening set.

On the other hand, he has lost his last six singles outings on tour when losing the first set and has not gone on to win in that scenario since defeating Lorenzo Sonego at Wimbledon this year, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6, 7-5.

So far this year, he has won 76% of his first serve points while managing to save 70% of his break points on the hard court in 2025.

Overall, he has won an impressive 89% of his service games on the hard court this year, but has only captured 18% of his return points on that same surface.

Head To Head

Cincinnati Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Zverev wins 6-2 6-2

Boss Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Zverev wins 7-7 7-6

BMW Open (2025) - Final: Zverev wins 6-2 6-4

Western and Southern Open (2024) - Semi-Finals: Zverev wins 3-6 7-6 7-5

In the first meeting between these two last year, Zverev overcame eight double faults by winning over 81% of his first serves in a narrow three-set triumph.

Meeting in Zverev’s home country at the BMW Open, the German had no trouble dispatching the younger American, converting three of his four break-point opportunities.

When they met again in Stuttgart back in June, Shelton hit 21 aces, but it wasn’t enough as he registered five double faults, while Zverev only had one.

Their most recent matchup in Cincinnati saw the 2021 Olympic gold medalist collect four break points, while winning over 80% of his first serves, and Shelton claimed just over 66% of his.

We say: Zverev to win in two sets

Zverev knows what it’s like to play in these exclusive events, and his overall game should be enough to beat Shelton, who relies a little too heavily on his big serve.