Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 49.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Australia had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for an Australia win it was 0-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.