Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 62.16%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 18.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.74%) and 3-1 (7.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-2 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester United Women in this match.

Result
Manchester United Women	Draw	Aston Villa Women
62.16% ( 0.32)	19% ( -0.06)	18.84% ( -0.26)

Both teams to score 63.83% (

-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.07% (

-0.14)

30.93% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.69% (

-0.17)

52.31% (

0.17)

Manchester United Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.34% (

0.03)

9.66% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.76% (

0.08)

32.24% (

-0.08)

Aston Villa Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.65% (

-0.34)

29.34% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.67% (

-0.42)

65.32% (

0.42)

Score Analysis

Manchester United Women 62.16%

Aston Villa Women 18.84%

Draw 19%

Manchester United Women	Draw	Aston Villa Women
2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.86% Total : 62.16%	1-1 @ 8.12% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.37% Total : 19%	1-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.48% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.84% Total : 18.84%