Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 53.92%. A win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 23.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Aston Villa Women win was 1-2 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United Women would win this match.