Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 43.01%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 2-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.