Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.43%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.