Women's Super League | Gameweek 17
Mar 24, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 3
Arsenal Women

Salmon (35')
Daly (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pelova (54'), Wubben-Moy (84'), Blackstenius (86')
Cooney-Cross (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's Super League clash between Aston Villa Women and Arsenal Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa Women

All competitions
Last Game: Everton Ladies 1-2 Aston Villa
Saturday, March 16 at 1pm in Women's Super League

Arsenal Women

All competitions
Last Game: Chelsea Women 3-1 Arsenal Women
Friday, March 15 at 7pm in Women's Super League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 70.47%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 13.73%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.42%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 2-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Arsenal Women in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arsenal Women.

Result
Aston Villa WomenDrawArsenal Women
13.73% (-1.938 -1.94)15.8% (-1.105 -1.11)70.47% (3.042 3.04)
Both teams to score 64.39% (-0.753 -0.75)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.8% (1.217 1.22)25.2% (-1.218 -1.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.82% (1.567 1.57)45.18% (-1.568 -1.57)
Aston Villa Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.83% (-1.453 -1.45)31.17% (1.452 1.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.5% (-1.727 -1.73)67.5% (1.725 1.73)
Arsenal Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.55% (0.861 0.86)6.45% (-0.863 -0.86)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
75.88% (2.308 2.31)24.13% (-2.31 -2.31)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa Women 13.73%
    Arsenal Women 70.47%
    Draw 15.8%
Aston Villa WomenDrawArsenal Women
2-1 @ 3.74% (-0.44 -0.44)
1-0 @ 2.34% (-0.293 -0.29)
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.22 -0.22)
3-1 @ 1.46% (-0.237 -0.24)
2-0 @ 1.37% (-0.234 -0.23)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 13.73%
1-1 @ 6.42% (-0.473 -0.47)
2-2 @ 5.13% (-0.34 -0.34)
0-0 @ 2.01% (-0.163 -0.16)
3-3 @ 1.82% (-0.108 -0.11)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 15.8%
1-2 @ 8.8% (-0.215 -0.22)
1-3 @ 8.05% (0.181 0.18)
0-2 @ 7.55% (0.119 0.12)
0-3 @ 6.9% (0.42 0.42)
1-4 @ 5.51% (0.37 0.37)
0-1 @ 5.51% (-0.174 -0.17)
0-4 @ 4.73% (0.491 0.49)
2-3 @ 4.69% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-4 @ 3.21% (0.094 0.09)
1-5 @ 3.02% (0.332 0.33)
0-5 @ 2.59% (0.376 0.38)
2-5 @ 1.76% (0.13 0.13)
1-6 @ 1.38% (0.208 0.21)
3-4 @ 1.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-6 @ 1.19% (0.218 0.22)
Other @ 4.32%
Total : 70.47%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Arsenal Women

Aston Villa Women
22.2%
Draw
11.1%
Arsenal Women
66.7%
9
Head to Head
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Aston Villa
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Pacheco (25')
Pacheco (43'), Parker (86')
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May 27, 2023 2.30pm
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0-2
Aston Villa

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Daly (45+2'), Lehmann (49')
Magill (70'), Allen (77'), Hampton (85'), Hanson (90+3')
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Dec 11, 2022 4.15pm
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Corsie (26' og.), Miedema (30'), McCabe (62'), Nobbs (84')
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May 1, 2022 2.15pm
Gameweek 21
Arsenal Women
7-0
Aston Villa
Miedema (9', 13'), Corsie (52' og.), Mead (61'), Wubben-Moy (66'), Blackstenius (83'), Parris (90' pen.)
Foord (90+1')

Petzelberger (54')
> Preview
Oct 2, 2021 5.15pm
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0-4
Arsenal Women

Pacheco (57')
Little (51', 90+2'), Iwabuchi (80'), McCabe (83')
> Preview