Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 1-2 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.