Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 18
Dec 2, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Ynysangharad Park

Pontypridd
1 - 2
Caernarfon

Ahmun (41'), Jones (41')
Wright (25'), Hunt (88')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Clarke (60' pen.), Bradley (75')
Cartwright (53'), Mooney (73')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Pontypridd United and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pontypridd Town AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 3-1 Pontypridd
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 1-1 Caernarfon
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pontypridd Town AFC win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pontypridd Town AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.17%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
Pontypridd Town AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
43.83% (-2.97 -2.97)23.33% (0.228 0.23)32.83% (2.739 2.74)
Both teams to score 62.96% (0.59 0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.5% (0.181 0.18)38.5% (-0.184 -0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.2% (0.19 0.19)60.79% (-0.194 -0.19)
Pontypridd Town AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.02% (-1.096 -1.1)17.97% (1.091 1.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.18% (-1.913 -1.91)48.81% (1.911 1.91)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.75% (1.718 1.72)23.24% (-1.722 -1.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.84% (2.448 2.45)57.15% (-2.452 -2.45)
Score Analysis
    Pontypridd Town AFC 43.83%
    Caernarfon Town 32.83%
    Draw 23.33%
Pontypridd Town AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
2-1 @ 8.98% (-0.276 -0.28)
1-0 @ 7.17% (-0.327 -0.33)
2-0 @ 6.15% (-0.516 -0.52)
3-1 @ 5.14% (-0.351 -0.35)
3-2 @ 3.75% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-0 @ 3.52% (-0.435 -0.44)
4-1 @ 2.2% (-0.237 -0.24)
4-2 @ 1.61% (-0.086 -0.09)
4-0 @ 1.51% (-0.248 -0.25)
Other @ 3.81%
Total : 43.83%
1-1 @ 10.46% (0.06 0.06)
2-2 @ 6.55% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.82% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.33%
1-2 @ 7.63% (0.415 0.42)
0-1 @ 6.09% (0.247 0.25)
0-2 @ 4.45% (0.39 0.39)
1-3 @ 3.71% (0.374 0.37)
2-3 @ 3.19% (0.215 0.22)
0-3 @ 2.16% (0.286 0.29)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.195 0.2)
2-4 @ 1.16% (0.131 0.13)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 32.83%

Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 5.15pm
Gameweek 8
Caernarfon
1-0
Pontypridd
Mooney (84')
Cartwright (45+2'), Bradley (86'), Davies (90')

Shepherd (25'), Margetson (69'), Leo Martins (75')
Apr 15, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 9
Caernarfon
1-2
Pontypridd
Wynne (59')
Simpson (50' og.), Cummings (72')
Mar 11, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Pontypridd
1-0
Caernarfon
Margetson (39')
Oct 1, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Pontypridd
3-1
Caernarfon
Evans (37'), Wright (74'), Williams (90+5')
Thomas (60')
Aug 20, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
2-0
Pontypridd
Bradley (62'), Faux (65')
Cartwright (33'), Gosset (68')

Woodiwiss (30')