Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 38.44%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 36.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.