Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 57.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 19.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (6.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.