Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 43.02%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.