Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Airbus UK Broughton had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for an Airbus UK Broughton win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.