MX23RW : Friday, March 29 02:17:40| >> :120:28557:28557:
[monks data]
Watford logo
Premier League | Gameweek 32
Jun 28, 2020 at 4.30pm UK
Vicarage Road Stadium
Southampton logo

Watford
1 - 3
Southampton

Bednarek (79' og.)
Dawson (32'), Doucoure (90+5'), Cathcart (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ings (16', 70'), Ward-Prowse (82')

Preview: Watford vs. Southampton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Watford and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Watford welcome Southampton to Vicarage Road on Sunday knowing that victory would be a timely boost to their Premier League survival hopes.

The Hornets currently sit just one point above the relegation zone following Thursday's defeat at Burnley, while Southampton need just one more win to reach the 40-point mark.


Match preview

Watford's Craig Dawson celebrates scoring against Leicester on June 20, 2020© Reuters

There is little doubt that Watford would have taken their current position if it was offered to them when Nigel Pearson took over, but their recent form will raise alarm bells heading into the most important spell of the season.

Pearson earned 13 points from his first six games at the helm but has since taken just six more from the last nine outings, three of which came in a truly remarkable win over Liverpool.

That result proved that the Hornets are capable of beating the very best on their day, but that day has come far too sporadically this season and Thursday's defeat at Burnley was another low point in their campaign.

The positive news for Watford is that things remain in their hands; they are currently a point clear of West Ham United, Bournemouth and Aston Villa and still have fellow strugglers Norwich City and West Ham to face this season.

However, they also have difficult matches against Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal to come - the latter two being the last two games of the season - and so more winnable fixtures like Sunday's naturally take on more importance.

It is likely to be at home where they pick up the points needed to beat the drop, and they go into Sunday's contest with only one defeat in their last nine outings at Vicarage Road - including victories over top-six teams Manchester United, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool in that time.

Southampton players celebrate a goal from Danny Ings on June 19, 2020© Reuters

The only home game back since lockdown ended in a respectable 1-1 draw with Leicester City too, but they welcome a Southampton side that has been away-day specialists in the Premier League this season.

The Saints have picked up a league-high 62% of their points on their travels in 2019-20 and, while they have the worst home record in the entire division, only Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Leicester and Wolves have fared better away.

Southampton's form since lockdown has offered a perfect microcosm of that - a comfortable and convincing 3-0 win at Norwich in their first game back before losing 2-0 to an Arsenal side in poor form themselves at home on Thursday night.

An Alex McCarthy howler and Jack Stephens red card certainly did not help their cause against the Gunners, with McCarthy's being the 10th mistake leading directly to a goal that Southampton have committed this season - a league high.

Despite that, the Saints look certain not to be dragged into the relegation battle with only three points needed to reach 40, and in truth their current tally of 37 is likely to be enough anyway.

Watford Premier League form: DLWLDL

Southampton Premier League form: LWLLWL


Team News

Watford manager Nigel Pearson pictured on January 12, 2020© Reuters

Nigel Pearson could look to make changes to his starting XI following the defeat to Burnley, with no new injury concerns to worry about.

Gerard Deulofeu, Daryl Janmaat and Isaac Success all remain sidelined and will be out for the rest of the season, but the likes of Abdoulaye Doucoure and Craig Cathcart will be pushing for recalls.

There is unlikely to be any change in goal, though, where Ben Foster will become just the 19th player - and the oldest ever - to start 100 consecutive Premier League games.

Craig Dawson should also keep his place at centre-back; he made a goalline clearance against Burnley and, since the restart, has had more shots (four), shots on target (three) and touches in the opposition box (six) than any other Watford player.

Dawson's main job on Sunday could be to keep Danny Ings out, though, with the Southampton striker having netted 16 times this season including eight in his last 10 away league games.

The visitors will be without Stephens following his red card, but Ralph Hasenhuttl has indicated that he will keep faith with McCarthy despite his error.

Moussa Djenepo is also suspended as he serves the last of his three-match ban, while Southampton could also be without Sofiane Boufal and former captain Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, the latter of whom limped off against Arsenal.

Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Femenia, Cathcart, Dawson, Masina; Sarr, Doucoure, Capoue, Pereyra; Deeney, Gray

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Valery, Vestergaard, Bednarek, Bertrand; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Redmond; Ings, Long


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Watford 1-1 Southampton

Watford are in more need of the points than Southampton, but it is impossible to ignore the visitors' away record this season. The result could depend on which version of Watford - and indeed Southampton - turn up, but we're sitting on the fence with a draw.



ID:404013: cacheID:404013:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:restore:9833:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Restore Data
Share this article now:
Watford's Ismaila Sarr celebrates scoring their first goal on February 29, 2020
Read Next:
Watford's most valuable players
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds38257670284282
2Leicester CityLeicester37264774334182
3Ipswich TownIpswich38249580493181
4Southampton36227773472673
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381991059362366
6Norwich CityNorwich381871369541561
7Hull City371610115346758
8Coventry CityCoventry3715121059431657
9Preston North EndPreston37168134954-556
10Middlesbrough38166165352154
11Cardiff CityCardiff38165174351-853
12Sunderland38146184845348
13Watford381212145351248
14Bristol City38138174245-347
15Swansea CitySwansea381210164858-1046
16Millwall381110173650-1443
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn38119185164-1342
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth381011175462-841
19Stoke CityStoke38118193553-1841
20Queens Park RangersQPR381010183650-1440
21Birmingham CityBirmingham38109194259-1739
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield38815154261-1939
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38115223061-3138
24Rotherham UnitedRotherham38311243077-4720


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!