There is a huge game in the Eredivisie relegation battle on Sunday as VVV-Venlo host Willem II.
Both clubs are currently level on nine points, with VVV occupying 16th position and the relegation playoff spot, while Willem are a place higher due to goal difference.
Match preview
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VVV are currently on a four-game losing streak so will have been thankful for the arrival of the winter break after their 4-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven.
Hans de Koning's side actually took the lead against their title-challenging opponents when Jafar Arias scored in the 22nd-minute but then faced an onslaught from the Boeren.
It was the 11th game in a row that VVV had conceded at least twice, a run which includes the now infamous 13-0 defeat to Ajax in October; this means that they have comfortably the worse defensive record in the Eredivisie, conceding 42 goals and failing to keep a clean sheet so far.
Georgios Giakoumakis remains the joint-second highest scorer in the league having netted half of VVV's 20 goals, but he is having his longest drought of the season so far, failing to convert in his last three games.
One thing that may give VVV hope is that they have not lost to Willem II in their last eight home matches against them, dating back to the early 1990s.
However, the Tricolores did win 2-1 in the fixture between the two sides earlier this season – one of only two victories they have achieved in the whole campaign.
Their last game before the winter break was a remarkable 1-1 draw against Ajax, despite the league leaders having 73% possession and treble the amount of shots.
Kwasi Okyere Wriedt's second-half goal cancelled out Antony's early opener, and the result brought to an end a five-game losing run for Adrie Koster's men. Willem led 2-0 away from home at AZ Alkmaar three days previously before losing 5-3, meaning they are one of just two Eredivisie sides – along with bottom club Emmen – yet to win on the road this season.
VVV-Venlo Eredivisie form: LDLLLL
VVV-Venlo form (all competitions): DLLWLL
Willem II Eredivisie form: WLLLLD
Willem II form (all competitions): LLLLLD
Team News
VVV have bolstered their defensive ranks with the signings of Leon Guwara and Kristopher Da Graca, and De Koning has confirmed that both are available to play on Sunday.
It is a busy month ahead for VVV, with six league games plus a cup fixture, and the head coach has hinted that he may rotate his squad in the next few matches.
Driess Saddiki is set to be available for selection for Willem for the first time since he picked up an injury against FC Twente in October, while captain Jordens Peters is also due to return after missing the two games before the winter break with a knock.
However, Pol Llonch and Miquel Nelom remain sidelined, while Victor van den Bogert is suffering from illness.
VVV-Venlo possible starting lineup:
Kirschbaum; Pachonik, De Graca, Kum, Guwara; Van Crooij, Post, Linthorst, John; Giakoumakis, Arias
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Ruiter; Owusu, Holmen, Peters, Kohn; Heerkens, Tresor, Saddiki; Nunnely, Wriedt, Pavlidis
We say: VVV-Venlo 2-2 Willem II
Goals are almost guaranteed in this game due to both teams' leaky defences, and each side will be desperate to win and earn even the smallest bit of breathing room from the bottom three, but we think it will end up all square.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 40.27%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
