Separated by two points and one place just above the relegation zone, Vizela and Arouca lock horns at the Estadio do FC Vizela in round 31 of the Primeira Liga on Friday.
The Vizelenses will be eyeing a first-ever league double over the visitors after cruising to a comfortable 4-1 victory when the sides squared off in December's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Vizela failed to steer clear of the drop zone as they suffered a second consecutive league defeat last Saturday when they were beaten 1-0 by fellow relegation battlers Belenenses.
Yves Baraye's 29th-minute strike was all that separated the sides at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor as O Belem put in a solid defensive display to see out the win and keep their survival hopes alive.
This was a second consecutive defeat for Alvaro Pacheco's men, who have managed just one win from their last 10 outings, claiming seven points from a possible 30.
With 29 points from 30 games, Vizela are currently 14th in the Primeira Liga standings, two points above Friday's visitors and three above Moreirense in the relegation playoff spot.
While the Vizelenses will be looking to end their dry spell, they head into Friday winless in any of their last four home games, claiming two points from a possible 12 since the 3-2 victory over Vitoria de Guimaraes on January 30.
Like Friday's hosts, Arouca continue to struggle for form in the Portuguese top flight as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Santa Clara when the sides squared off last Friday.
Andre Silva struck first at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca to put the hosts ahead shortly after the half-time break, but Kyosuke Tagawa found the target in the 72nd minute to force a share of the spoils.
Armando Evangelista's side have now failed to win six of their last seven games — losing twice and claiming two draws — with a 2-1 victory over Gil Vicente on April 2 being the only exception.
Arouca's struggles this season could be pinned to their frailties at the back as they currently hold the division's second-worst defensive record with 51 goals conceded and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 games since January's goalless draw with Famalicao.
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Team News
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Vizela will take to the pitch without the services of Marcus Paulo after the 33-year-old midfielder picked up an injury in March's game against Benfica.
He is joined on the Vizelenses injury table by Portuguese defender Bruno Wilson, who has missed the last four games through a muscle problem.
Meanwhile, Arouca remain without several key players down the spine of the team as the likes of Fernando Augusto, Jose Manuel Velazquez and midfielder Moses Yaw all continue their spells on the sidelines.
Pedro Moreira remains out of contention for the Arouquenses after coming off with a knee problem 23 minutes into the game against Tondela on March 19, while Brazilian midfielder Wellington Nem misses out through a muscle injury.
Evangelista also remains unable to call upon Ivory Coast midfielder Eboue Kouassi, who is set to sit out his seventh game on the spin after picking up an ACL injury back in February.
With his strike against Santa Clara last time out, Silva now has five goals in his last four outings and we expect the 24-year-old to handle business at the attacking end of the pitch once again.
Vizela possible starting lineup:
Silva; Juliao, Anderson, Fernandes, Ofori; Claudemir, Rashid; Samu, Bondoso, Zohi; Cassiano
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Braga; Esgaio, Basso, Galovic; Thales, L Silva, Moreira, Simao; Oleques, Bukia, A Silva
We say: Vizela 1-1 Arouca
With just two points separating Vizela and Arouca, we predict a cagey affair as they both look to snap their winless runs and boost their survival chances. However, we predict the honours will be shared between the two evenly-matched sides who should do just enough to leave with a point apiece.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
