USA vs Paraguay: Why the United States could go further than expected at the World Cup

Hosting a World Cup again after 32 years, the United States begin their bid to prove themselves a nation that has truly embraced football on Saturday, when they face Paraguay in Los Angeles at 2am (BST).

If, back in 1994, one of the aims of the World Cup was to help create a more developed league in the country – MLS played its first season in 1996 and now shows an acceptable standard – then 2026 offers the United States the chance to prove that the task worked, and that the national team finally has the level to compete with more traditional sides that carry greater firepower.

To that end, the United States turned to Mauricio Pochettino after the dismissal of Gregg Berhalter following a poor Copa America campaign in 2024, on home soil. So far, the former Tottenham Hotspur manager's spell with the national team has been marked by some good wins and moments that feel like more of the same – embarrassments at the Gold Cup and defeats to more significant nations.

Nevertheless, there are reasons to believe that the United States can make a good account of themselves at a home World Cup.

Pochettino has finally stopped experimenting

One of the main reasons Pochettino's work is still questioned concerns the number of experiments the manager carried out during his time with the United States. Different formations, and different positions and roles for players who excel most in more familiar settings, are among the negatives.

In the pre-World Cup friendlies, however, the manager finally returned to what worked best during the cycle. In the matches against Senegal and Germany, the Argentine went back to the three-centre-back system used in last year's 5-1 thrashing of Uruguay, and saw good results, beating the African side and producing good football despite defeat to the Europeans.

The rise of Alex Freeman is hugely important if Pochettino is to use this system. A product of Orlando City as a full-back and now at Villarreal, the youngster operates as a right-sided centre-back and is very comfortable in possession, whether starting moves, joining the midfield or pushing further forward into attack.

The system also allows the United States to use the best they have available in the wide areas. Sergino Dest is excellent at getting in behind but is not a good defender, something that is less exposed with three centre-backs. On the left, meanwhile, Antonee Robinson continues to show his Premier League level while getting forward less than Dest.

A change that could help Pulisic perform better

During the World Cup cycle, Christian Pulisic faced plenty of criticism for performances below expectations. Part of that may be linked to the fact that he had to become the national team's captain earlier than was necessary.

For the World Cup, the veteran Tim Ream will wear the armband. At 38, the centre-back is expected to start on the left of the American defence.

In the most recent friendlies before the tournament, now without the armband, Pulisic looked much closer to his best performances for the national team. It even seemed as though a weight had been lifted from his shoulders.

And it is important that he is in good form, since he is the country's best player even if he does not arrive on the back of a strong spell at AC Milan.

The United States have better options than at recent World Cups

Something that hurt the Americans badly at their last World Cup appearance, in Qatar, was the lack of good-quality options on the bench. Some of the players who were there have grown since then, and others have seized opportunities to find a place in the squad.

In defence, Freeman's aforementioned rise helps in two positions, while the full-backs and wing-backs have also improved: Joe Scally has further increased his presence in the Bundesliga with Borussia Monchengladbach, and Max Arfsten has excellent attacking numbers with Columbus Crew.

In midfield, the son of former manager Gregg, Sebastian Berhalter, had an excellent season with Vancouver Whitecaps in 2025 and has become one of Pochettino's favourites. For a more attacking option, Malik Tillman is the name, coming off a decent first season in the Bundesliga after being signed by Bayer Leverkusen to replace Florian Wirtz.

Up front, where Pochettino does not necessarily have a confirmed starter, there are three good options: Folarin Balogun is the best finisher and has plenty of pace, Ricardo Pepi contributes a great deal to creating chances, and Haji Wright may look like a more box-focused striker but also moves well.

The tournament format could offer a favourable route

Curiously, the best route for the United States to go far in the tournament runs through finishing second in the group, which would not be unlikely given the balance with Turkey and Paraguay.

Their round-of-32 opponent would come from a group of Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. With the Europeans going through in first place, the tie would be more comfortable. In the last 16, Argentina could be a heavy opponent, but depending on how things fall, Austria and Uruguay are good options for securing a place in the quarter-finals.

The quarter-finals could bring a reunion with Portugal, which would not be all bad, because the Americans did not fare poorly in the March friendly despite the defeat. But depending on the Portuguese's performances, the side reaching that tie could be one of Canada, Colombia, Ecuador or Switzerland – opponents more in keeping with the level of Pulisic and company.

Reaching the quarter-finals would already be an excellent result for the American national team, and finding a way into the semi-finals would be the best possible scenario.