Union Berlin take on Hertha Berlin in the Berlin derby on Sunday, with the visitors desperately looking to do the double over their city rivals and move further clear of the relegation zone.
Indeed, Union Berlin will be keen to avenge the 3-1 defeat suffered to Hertha in early December, especially with a Europa League qualification place to fight for.
Match preview
© Reuters
Not many club managers enjoy international breaks, but Urs Fischer may have been mildly relieved to have one straight after suffering a gruelling 5-2 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt last time out.
In only their sixth league defeat of the season, Union Berlin were played off the park by their opponents, with Andre Silva and Filip Kostic putting on a clinic of scintillating attacking football.
The duo combined in only the second minute of the match - Kostic crossing for Silva to convert once again - with Max Kruse's equaliser five minutes later proving a false alarm in terms of any signals of a closely fought affair.
Robert Andrich's overzealous back-pass found his goalkeeper Robin Knoche caught on his heels and unable to prevent the ball from flying past him into the back of his own net, with Kostic and Silva finishing two superb team moves to all but put the match to bed before half time.
Kruse did pull another back with a fine looping header before Timothy Chandler's injury-time strike, so Fischer will feel content that his talisman is scoring once again ahead of one of their most important matches of the season against Hertha on Sunday.
© Reuters
Having performed better without the return of improved results since appointing Pal Dardai as manager in January, the 45-year-old's second spell in charge of Hertha finally got off and running with a superb 3-0 win against Bayer Leverkusen last time out.
The hosts took the lead through Deyovaisio Zeefuik's excellent curling finish, which clattered off the side of the past and into the back of the net, with Leverkusen leaving incredible spaces at the back as they pushed for an equaliser.
For all of Hertha's weaknesses this season, they remain a potentially devastating side in transition, and so it proved with Matheus Cunha and Jhon Cordoba both racing in behind and applying the finishing touches to provide their team with a comfortable 3-0 win.
However, they are unlikely to find their city rivals as accommodating on Sunday, so may require a more delicate touch in their build-up phases to break them down.
While they will take confidence from beating Fischer's side in December, that match was flipped on its head by Andrich's red card with the scoreline 1-0 to Union Berlin at the time, so they cannot afford to take them lightly as they look to increase their gap to more than one point above the relegation zone.
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
Article continues after the advert
Team News
Union Berlin are likely to remain without Sheraldo Becker, Petar Musa, Niko Giesselmann, Anthony Ujah and Liverpool loanee Taiwo Awoniyi due to injury.
Joel Pohjanpalo may lead the line in order to provide Kruse with more space to operate in behind, with Union Berlin's top goalscorer hoping to fare better than last time in the Berlin derby, when he sustained a torn muscle bundle.
Hertha will travel without the suspended Vladimir Darida, with the midfielder serving a further two-match suspension after his vicious tackle on Marco Reus against Borussia Dortmund last month.
Luca Netz and Eduard Lowen will definitely miss out through injury, with Dedryck Boyata perhaps needing more time on the training pitch before being thrown back into the starting XI.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Schlotterbeck; Trimmel, Promel, Andrich, Lenz; Ingvartsen, Kruse; Pohjanpalo
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Klunter, Stark, Dardai; Zeefuik, Tousart, Guendouzi, Mittelstadt; Lukebakio, Cordoba, Cunha
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Hertha Berlin
We can envisage a fiery, closely-fought Berlin derby on Sunday, with Hertha better placed to gain a positive result than they were even a month ago.
Dardai's side certainly have greater firepower in attacking areas, but Union Berlin's defensive resoluteness and the X-factor of Kruse should help them avoid the ignominy of falling to a league double to their city rivals.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 49.41%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 25.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
