Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Vorskla Poltava win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Zorya Luhansk in this match.