Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 50.65%. A win for FC Oleksandriya had a probability of 26.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest FC Oleksandriya win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.