Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 60.55%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 20.11% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.4%) and 3-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (5.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.