Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Servette win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 24.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Servette win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.75%). The likeliest Lugano win was 0-1 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.