Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 43.08%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.