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Sutton United
League Two | Gameweek 25
Jan 1, 2022 at 3pm UK
Borough Sports Ground
Exeter City

Sutton
2 - 1
Exeter

Bugiel (8'), Milsom (89' pen.)
Barden (64')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Dieng (9')

Preview: Sutton United vs. Exeter City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Sutton United and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sutton United will play host to Exeter City on Saturday, and the home side could climb into the automatic promotion places with a victory.

Meanwhile, the visitors enter the fixture just three points adrift of their opponents, and sit a point outside the playoffs in eighth place.


Match preview

Sutton United manager Matt Gray as Aldershot's assistant coach in December 2014  © Reuters

Although they have not played since December 18 due to coronavirus-related postponements, Sutton will enter the New Year's Day meeting with Exeter full of confidence.

That is because Matt Gray's side have collected four points from their last two fixtures, which have kept them firmly in the promotion picture.

In their last outing, a Donovan Wilson effort in the first half at home to Harrogate Town was enough to guide Sutton to all three points.

Another home fixture awaits on Saturday, and that will fill the Sutton dressing full of confidence, given the fact that the Yellow and Chocolates have won seven of their 10 home league games this term.

In fact, Gray's men are unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures at Gander Green Lane after keeping a clean sheet in all five of those contests.

Meanwhile, Exeter will return to action for the first time since December 11 after a number of postponements saw their festive schedule wiped out.

Matt Taylor will hope that his side can return from the enforced break in better form than the last time they played.

That is because the Grecians will enter the New Year's Day fixture off the back of three consecutive defeats in all competitions, while they are winless in their last four league fixtures.

It is a run of results that has seen Exeter fall from the promotion places to the eighth position they currently occupy.

However, due to the close nature of the League Two table, a promotion fight is still a reality, and Exeter will hope that they can replicate September's 2-0 win over Sutton to get their campaign back on track.

Sutton United League Two form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Sutton United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Exeter City League Two form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L

Exeter City form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Exeter City boss Matt Taylor pictured during the League Two playoff final in June 2020© Reuters

Sutton could name an unchanged lineup from the one that beat Harrogate last time out.

That would mean that Alistair Smith keeps his place in the side after starting the last two fixtures.

Meanwhile, Wilson will be aiming to score in consecutive games when he partners Omar Bugiel up-front.

As for Exeter, there is great uncertainty about the eleven that will take to the pitch on Saturday, with Taylor suggesting that he only has 11 fit outfield players to choose from with coronavirus and injuries affecting the squad.

With a high number of absentees, the Grecians have had to recall Cheick Diabate and Jordan Dyer from their respective loan spells.

Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Barden, Goodliffe, John, Wyatt; Randall, Milsom, Smith, Ajiboye; Bugiel, Wilson

Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Key, Ray, Hartridge, Daniel; Kite, Collins, Jay; Taylor, Coley, Brown


SM words green background

We say: Sutton United 3-1 Exeter City

With Exeter struggling for players, their preparation for Saturday's encounter could be hindered, and we think that Sutton will take advantage and collect another home victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Sutton vs Exeter

Sutton United
72.7%
Draw
9.1%
Exeter City
18.2%
11
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