Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Kasimpasa had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.57%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Kasimpasa win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.