Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 47.61%. A win for Istanbul Basaksehir had a probability of 27.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-0 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.